CAJ | 학술논문

本文基于世代交叠模型，引入住房消费因素，构建两期交叠模型研究房价与储蓄率的关系。研究发现房价与储蓄率之间存在负向的相互影响，进而利用1999-2011年中国31个省市区的面板数据，构建面板联立方程模型对房价与储蓄率的关系进行实证检验。研究结果发现，房价对居民储蓄率的影响显著为负，房价的上涨并未导致居民储蓄率的提高，反而导致“储蓄搬家”现象的产生。同时，房价与居民储蓄率之间存在内生性关系以及非对称的负向互动影响，且房价对居民储蓄率的负向作用程度更大。进一步研究发现，收入水平的提高、老龄化的加快、收入差距的扩大与未来收入的不确定性均显著促进居民储蓄率的提高。此外，因短期内中国传统的节俭习惯难以逆转，中国居民储蓄行为存在“棘轮效应”。
본문기우세대교첩모형，인입주방소비인소，구건량기교첩모형연구방개여저축솔적관계。연구발현방개여저축솔지간존재부향적상호영향，진이이용1999-2011년중국31개성시구적면판수거，구건면판련립방정모형대방개여저축솔적관계진행실증검험。연구결과발현，방개대거민저축솔적영향현저위부，방개적상창병미도치거민저축솔적제고，반이도치“저축반가”현상적산생。동시，방개여거민저축솔지간존재내생성관계이급비대칭적부향호동영향，차방개대거민저축솔적부향작용정도경대。진일보연구발현，수입수평적제고、노령화적가쾌、수입차거적확대여미래수입적불학정성균현저촉진거민저축솔적제고。차외，인단기내중국전통적절검습관난이역전，중국거민저축행위존재“극륜효응”。
Based on the overlapping generation models, and then introduction of housing consumption factors, this paper builds two-stage overlapping generation models to study the relationship between housing prices and savings rates.It is found that there is negative influence each other between housing prices and sav-ings rates.The paper also builds a dynamic panel simultaneous model to take empirical test on the relationship between housing prices and savings rates using the panel data of provinces from 1999 to 2011.The result shows that the housing prices have a significantly negative influence on the savings rates, but the housing prices raise didn't result the saving rate raise.And it leads to the phenomenon of "savings to move".At the same time, it has an endogenous and asymmetric negative interaction effects relationship between the housing prices and savings rate.And housing prices has a bigger negative influence on the savings rates.The further studies show that the improvement of income level, acceleration of the aging, the enlargement of income gap and the uncertainty of future income promote the savings rates significantly.In addition, because the Chinese traditional consumption habits are hard to reverse in the short time, there exists a "ratchet effect"in China's household savings behavior.