CAJ | 학술논문

城市化是每个国家必须经历的发展阶段，城市化引起的环境问题成为当前研究的热点。本文依据IPCC提供的方法对长江三角洲地区1999~2012年能源消耗碳排放水平进行测算，并运用协整理论和ECM模型分析了城市化与能源消耗及碳排放的关系。研究发现该地区的城市化水平与能源消耗及碳排放量在长期表现出持久的均衡关系，并且这种关系可以在短时间得到显著的改进，同时城市化水平能Granger引起能源消耗和碳排放。因此调整城市化结构，提高能源使用效率是推进地区可持续发展的主要路径。
성시화시매개국가필수경력적발전계단，성시화인기적배경문제성위당전연구적열점。본문의거IPCC제공적방법대장강삼각주지구1999~2012년능원소모탄배방수평진행측산，병운용협정이론화ECM모형분석료성시화여능원소모급탄배방적관계。연구발현해지구적성시화수평여능원소모급탄배방량재장기표현출지구적균형관계，병차저충관계가이재단시간득도현저적개진，동시성시화수평능Granger인기능원소모화탄배방。인차조정성시화결구，제고능원사용효솔시추진지구가지속발전적주요로경。
urbanization is a necessary stage of every country's development, the environment problems caused by urbanization has been a hot topic recently. This paper calculates energy-consump-tion carbon emissions of Yangtze River Delta Region from 1999 to 2012 based on IPCC, then using co-integration analysis and error correct model studies the association of urbanization, energy-con-sumption and carbon emissions. The results show that there is long-term co-integration relationship among urbanization, energy-con-sumption and carbon e-missions in the Yangtze River Delta, and the relationship can be corrected significantly in the short term. Granger causality analysis shows urbanization is an important cause of energy-consumption and carbon emissions. In a word, modulating the structure of urbanization and improving energy efficiency are the main way to promote regional sustainable development.