CAJ | 학술논문

本文以甘肃省各县区为研究对象，选取1990年、2000年、2010年的人口普查数据，分别计算各县区老年人口比重和老年人口密度。首先应用ArcGIS软件分析老龄化人口的时空分布特征，并通过重心计算均衡点；其次应用GeoDa软件对老年人口分布进行空间自相关分析；最后，从人口、经济、社会角度探索性地分析导致空间分布差异的原因。研究结果表明：甘肃省老龄化现象呈现由东南向西北推进的扇形模式，老年人口密度呈现以兰州市及周边地区为圆心的同心圆扩展模式，老龄化重心位置逐渐向兰州市靠近；老龄化空间分布具有较显著的自相关性；老龄化空间分布差异与人口、社会和经济发展具有一定的关系。
본문이감숙성각현구위연구대상，선취1990년、2000년、2010년적인구보사수거，분별계산각현구노년인구비중화노년인구밀도。수선응용ArcGIS연건분석노령화인구적시공분포특정，병통과중심계산균형점；기차응용GeoDa연건대노년인구분포진행공간자상관분석；최후，종인구、경제、사회각도탐색성지분석도치공간분포차이적원인。연구결과표명：감숙성노령화현상정현유동남향서북추진적선형모식，노년인구밀도정현이란주시급주변지구위원심적동심원확전모식，노령화중심위치축점향란주시고근；노령화공간분포구유교현저적자상관성；노령화공간분포차이여인구、사회화경제발전구유일정적관계。
Taking each country in Gansu province as the research object and choosing the census data which include 1990,2000 and 2010 to calculate the proportion of elderly people and the density of elderly people in various counties. First-ly,this paper applies ArcGIS to analysis the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of aging population in each coun-try,and through the center of gravity to determine the equal area;Secondly,this paper applies GeoDa to analysis spatial auto-correlation of aging population in each country;Finally,this paper explores the causes of spatial distribution from population, economy and society. The results show that:the aging phenomenon in Gansu province presents fan mode extending from south-east to northwest,the density of the aging presents concentric circle model extending from Lanzhou and the surrounding areas as the center,the gravity of the aging gets closer to Lanzhou;The spatial distribution of the aging are auto correlated signifi-cantly;The difference of spatial distribution of the aging is related to the development of population ,economy and society.