CAJ | 학술논문

在Lee－Carter模型的基础上，提出了改进的双误差模型来预测未来中国农村人口死亡率，并得到了动态生命表。从统计角度出发，构建新农保的净支出模型，最后结合动态生命表预测未来国家在新农保中的支出情况。根据数据分析可知，中国农村未来人口死亡率有所改善，并且随着补缴人群的增多，国家在新农保中的支出也会增多。
재Lee－Carter모형적기출상，제출료개진적쌍오차모형래예측미래중국농촌인구사망솔，병득도료동태생명표。종통계각도출발，구건신농보적정지출모형，최후결합동태생명표예측미래국가재신농보중적지출정황。근거수거분석가지，중국농촌미래인구사망솔유소개선，병차수착보격인군적증다，국가재신농보중적지출야회증다。
This paper puts forward an improved two-error model based on the Lee-Carter model, to predict the future mortality of Chinese rural population, which gets future varying-lifetables at the same time.By the viewpoint of statistics, a net income model is built, which combined with varying-lifetables, is used to forecast the future financial expenditure in new rural social pension insurance(NRSPI).According to the analysis of the data, the future mortality of Chinese rural population will be improved, and with the increasing of retroactive resident, the government expenditure will be increasing.