CAJ | 학술논문

基于相对湿润度的干旱等级分析方法，应用中国西南1958─2012年气候资料，研究了中国西南干旱时域变化、空间分布、各季节的时空演变及其对全球气候变暖的响应特征，为应对气候变化提供科学依据。采用ArcGIS系统中反距离权重方法进行空间插值分析绘图。结果表明：中国西南年干旱发生区主要分布于云南高原北部、川西高原和川西南山地，发生干旱区域占总面积的30%左右；其中，中旱区分布于云南高原北部、川西高原部分区域，占研究区总面积的11%左右；重旱区分布于云南高原北部、川西高原局部地区，占研究区总面积的5%左右；历年干旱出现频率平均31.7%。研究区干旱以冬、春季干旱为主。历年逐季冬、春季干旱出现站次平均分别为76.1%和46.2%。1958─2012年云贵高原大部、四川盆地中部相对湿润度指数负绝对值增大，干旱等级提高，年干旱强度呈增强的趋势；其中，云贵高原大部分区域夏、秋和冬季相对湿润度指数负绝对值呈增大趋势，干旱显著增强；川西高原和川西南山地区冬季干旱呈增强趋势；四川盆地和川北区域秋季干旱呈增强趋势；川东盆地、贵州高原春季干旱也呈增强趋势。年干旱指数时间序列存在显著的3~4 a和7~8 a周期振荡；2009年为干旱强度显著加强的突变点，在全球气候变暖的背景下，预计未来数年中国西南干旱仍处在面积扩大、强度增强过程中。
기우상대습윤도적간한등급분석방법，응용중국서남1958─2012년기후자료，연구료중국서남간한시역변화、공간분포、각계절적시공연변급기대전구기후변난적향응특정，위응대기후변화제공과학의거。채용ArcGIS계통중반거리권중방법진행공간삽치분석회도。결과표명：중국서남년간한발생구주요분포우운남고원북부、천서고원화천서남산지，발생간한구역점총면적적30%좌우；기중，중한구분포우운남고원북부、천서고원부분구역，점연구구총면적적11%좌우；중한구분포우운남고원북부、천서고원국부지구，점연구구총면적적5%좌우；력년간한출현빈솔평균31.7%。연구구간한이동、춘계간한위주。력년축계동、춘계간한출현참차평균분별위76.1%화46.2%。1958─2012년운귀고원대부、사천분지중부상대습윤도지수부절대치증대，간한등급제고，년간한강도정증강적추세；기중，운귀고원대부분구역하、추화동계상대습윤도지수부절대치정증대추세，간한현저증강；천서고원화천서남산지구동계간한정증강추세；사천분지화천북구역추계간한정증강추세；천동분지、귀주고원춘계간한야정증강추세。년간한지수시간서렬존재현저적3~4 a화7~8 a주기진탕；2009년위간한강도현저가강적돌변점，재전구기후변난적배경하，예계미래수년중국서남간한잉처재면적확대、강도증강과정중。
Temporal variation, spatial distribution and sub-regional evolution characteristic of drought on southwestern China and their response characteristic to global climate warming were studied, used drought index analytical method which was based on relative moisture index, according to meteorological data between 1958 and 2012. It provide the scientific basis for coping climate change. Inverse distance weighting (IDW) method of ArcGIS system was used for analytical drawing of spatial data interpolation. The results showed that, annual drought of southwest China mainly distributed in northern Yunnan plateau, western Sichuan plateau and mountainous region of southwestern Sichuan. Drought region covered around 30%of the total region;among which, moderate drought region located in partly of the northern of Yunnan plateau and the western Sichuan plateau, covered around 11%of the total studied region;severe drought region located in northern Yunnan plateau and local area of western Sichuan plateau, covered around 5%; the drought share of 31.7% over the years on the station average. The main drought are winter and spring drought in the studying region, in which the average emergence of winter drought reached76.1%and spring drought reached 46.2%respectially. From 1958 to 2012, the negative absolute value of the relative moisture index increase in middle of Sichuan basin and mostly of Yunnan-Guizhou plateau, indicating the increase of drought level as well as drought intensity. Among which, the Negative absolute value of relative moisture had an increase tendency in most regions of the Yunnan-Guizhou plateau in Summer, autumn and winter, drought significantly enhanced; drought also increase in western Sichuan plateau and mountainous area of southwestern Sichuan in winter;Sichuan basin and north of Sichuan had an increase tendency of drought in autumn;the eastern part of Sichuan basin and Guizhou plateau also had an increase tendency in spring. The time series of index of annual drought has an obvious periodical oscillation of 3~4 a and 7~8 a;2009 is a mutation year of drought obviously strengthened. It is expected that the drought area will still expanding and the drought intensity will enhancing in the next few years in southwest China under the background global climate warming.