CAJ | 학술논문

变电站在进行成本估算时会受到许多不确定因素的影响,为量化分析这种不确定性因素对管理决策结果的影响,基于变电站全寿命周期成本(full life-cycle cost,LCC),提出了一种基于三参数区间灰数的变电站全寿命周期成本估算模型。该模型首先采用了三参数区间灰数来量化成本估算时的不确定性,然后采用净现值折算的方法针对变电站全寿命周期内发生的资本性投入成本、运维成本、检修成本、故障成本(风险成本)、退役处置成本这五大成本进行估算,进而依据全寿命周期的原理求出各方案三参数区间灰数形式的成本大小对各方案经济性的优劣进行排序。最后,通过以某新建变电站方案选型为例与文献[1]以区间数量化全寿命周期成本的方法进行对比,说明了该方法的有效性和可行性。
변전참재진행성본고산시회수도허다불학정인소적영향,위양화분석저충불학정성인소대관리결책결과적영향,기우변전참전수명주기성본(full life-cycle cost,LCC),제출료일충기우삼삼수구간회수적변전참전수명주기성본고산모형。해모형수선채용료삼삼수구간회수래양화성본고산시적불학정성,연후채용정현치절산적방법침대변전참전수명주기내발생적자본성투입성본、운유성본、검수성본、고장성본(풍험성본)、퇴역처치성본저오대성본진행고산,진이의거전수명주기적원리구출각방안삼삼수구간회수형식적성본대소대각방안경제성적우렬진행배서。최후,통과이모신건변전참방안선형위례여문헌[1]이구간수양화전수명주기성본적방법진행대비,설명료해방법적유효성화가행성。
In process of cost estimation,substation may be affected by many uncertain factors.In order to quantitatively ana-lyzing impact on management decision result by these uncertain factors,a kind of full life-cycle cost estimation model based on three parameters interval grey number was proposed.Firstly,three parameters interval grey number was used for quanti-tative analysis on uncertainty of cost estimation.Then,aiming at capital input cost,operation and maintenance cost,over-haul cost,fault cost(risk cost)and decommissioning disposal cost in substation full life-cycle,net present value conversion method was used for estimating.According to principles of full life-cycle,costs of three parameters interval grey number of each scheme were worked out and alternatives of economy of schemes were ranked.Finally,by comparing scheme selection for some new established substation and method for internal quantitative full life-cycle cost referred in document [1 ],effec-tiveness and feasibility of this method was explained and proved.