价值工程
價值工程
개치공정
VALUE ENGINEERING
2014年
34期
40-41,42
,共3页
输电线路%蒙特卡洛模拟%风险分析
輸電線路%矇特卡洛模擬%風險分析
수전선로%몽특잡락모의%풍험분석
transmission line%Monte Carlo simulation%risk analysis
输电线路工程受外界因素影响大，造成招标工程量与竣工工程量存在差异，从而引起投标单位采用不平衡报价导致结算超概算情况的出现，增加了建设单位的管理风险。在深入分析输电线路风险变量的基础上，构建出基于蒙特卡洛模拟的风险评估模型，并通过实例，对投标报价的风险概率进行了直观描述，提出了建设性意见。
輸電線路工程受外界因素影響大，造成招標工程量與竣工工程量存在差異，從而引起投標單位採用不平衡報價導緻結算超概算情況的齣現，增加瞭建設單位的管理風險。在深入分析輸電線路風險變量的基礎上，構建齣基于矇特卡洛模擬的風險評估模型，併通過實例，對投標報價的風險概率進行瞭直觀描述，提齣瞭建設性意見。
수전선로공정수외계인소영향대，조성초표공정량여준공공정량존재차이，종이인기투표단위채용불평형보개도치결산초개산정황적출현，증가료건설단위적관리풍험。재심입분석수전선로풍험변량적기출상，구건출기우몽특잡락모의적풍험평고모형，병통과실례，대투표보개적풍험개솔진행료직관묘술，제출료건설성의견。
Power transmission project is affected greatly by external factors, resulting in bidding of engineering quantity differences with the completion of the project quantity, which causes the unbalanced bidding of tendering units, leading to the settlements exceeding budgetary estimates, increasing the construction units' management risk. Based on in-depth analysis of the transmission line risk variables, the writer establishes a risk evaluation model based on Monte Carlo simulation, and through an example, directly describes the risk probability of the tender offer, and puts forward constructive suggestions.
