中国热钱月度流动规模测算研究
중국열전월도류동규모측산연구
Research on the Monthly Flow Scale of Hot Money in China
  • 万方数据
    广西财经学院学报 엄서재경학원학보
    JOURNAL OF GUANGXI UNIVERSITY OF FINANCE AND ECONOMICS
    2014年 5期 51-58 ,共8页

    王志遥%温亚平%许安心

    왕지요%온아평%허안심

    热钱外汇储备汇率%FDI外债%流动规模%测算 熱錢外彙儲備彙率%FDI外債%流動規模%測算
    열전외회저비회솔%FDI외채%류동규모%측산
    hot money%exchange rate%interest rates%foreign exchange reserves
    文章使用“热钱流动的规模=调整后的外汇储备增加额-贸易顺差-外商直接投资（FDI）增加额-外债增加额+贸易顺差中隐藏的热钱+FDI中隐藏的热钱+外资企业的短期外债增加额+通过非法渠道流入的热钱规模”的计算方法，结合分布滞后模型，对1999年至2013年9月期间热钱的月度流动规模进行了估算。
    문장사용“열전류동적규모=조정후적외회저비증가액-무역순차-외상직접투자（FDI）증가액-외채증가액+무역순차중은장적열전+FDI중은장적열전+외자기업적단기외채증가액+통과비법거도류입적열전규모”적계산방법，결합분포체후모형，대1999년지2013년9월기간열전적월도류동규모진행료고산。
    This analysis estimated the flow scale of hot money from January 1999 to September 2013. The formula applied is“the flow scale of hot money = the increases of reserves after adjustment - the trade sur-plus - the increases of Foreign Direct Investment(FDI)- the foreign debt increases + the hidden hot money of the trade surplus + the hidden hot money of the FDI + the increases of the short-term debt on for-eign-funded enterprises + the flow scale of hot money through illegal channels”. The distributed lag model is also adopted in the estimation.
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