CAJ | 학술논문

本文在构建三元悖论指数（trilemma index）的基础上，通过协整分析、不重复 Bootstrap 的数值模拟、和误差修正模型，进行了两方面的检验：一是人民币区域化背景下三元悖论在中国是否成立；二是三元悖论成立的条件下货币政策独立性受到的影响。研究发现，中国的三元悖论在三个政策目标的搭配下是成立的。在货币政策独立性所受影响方面，长期内，汇率制度弹性越大，资本账户开放程度越低，货币政策独立性越好；短期内，汇率制度对货币政策独立性影响不显著，而资本账户开放程度的影响是显著的，且资本账户开放程度越高，货币政策越独立。
본문재구건삼원패론지수（trilemma index）적기출상，통과협정분석、불중복 Bootstrap 적수치모의、화오차수정모형，진행료량방면적검험：일시인민폐구역화배경하삼원패론재중국시부성립；이시삼원패론성립적조건하화폐정책독립성수도적영향。연구발현，중국적삼원패론재삼개정책목표적탑배하시성립적。재화폐정책독립성소수영향방면，장기내，회솔제도탄성월대，자본장호개방정도월저，화폐정책독립성월호；단기내，회솔제도대화폐정책독립성영향불현저，이자본장호개방정도적영향시현저적，차자본장호개방정도월고，화폐정책월독립。
On the basis of the trilemma index,the paper tried the methods including the Co-integration,Bootstrap without replacement and Error Correction Model to test:in the context of RMB regionalization whether the impossible trinity is suitable for China’ s case and the influence on the independence of monetary policy.We found that with the right combination of the three policy positions,the trilemma principle was suitable.In terms of the influence on monetary policy independence,we found that larger the elasticity of exchange rate regime and the level of capital account openness,the greater of monetary policy independence in the long term.In the short term,the influence of exchange rate regime on monetary policy independence was statistically non significant while the influence of Capital account openness was significant.Besides,the higher level of capital account openness,the greater the monetary independence.