CAJ | 학술논문

通过建立 VAR 模型，利用1978—2012年的时间序列数据，运用 Granger 因果检验、脉冲响应分析和方差分解实证分析我国健康人力资本、教育人力资本与经济增长之间的互动关系，分析结果表明我国健康人力资本、教育人力资本和经济增长之间存在着长期的协整关系，在10％左右的显著性水平下，健康人力资本、教育人力资本和经济增长三个变量都是彼此变化的 Granger 原因，经济增长对健康和教育人力资本有一致的持续的促进作用，健康人力资本发挥着基础性的作用，对教育人力资本和经济增长的促进作用十分明显，一定程度上反映了我国医疗卫生体制改革的成效。然而教育人力资本对健康人力资本和经济增长的促进作用十分有限，这与当前我国教育人力资本投入水平偏低、利用率不高以及区域发展不均衡有着密切的关系，由此导致其对两者的带动作用没能显现出来。
통과건립 VAR 모형，이용1978—2012년적시간서렬수거，운용 Granger 인과검험、맥충향응분석화방차분해실증분석아국건강인력자본、교육인력자본여경제증장지간적호동관계，분석결과표명아국건강인력자본、교육인력자본화경제증장지간존재착장기적협정관계，재10％좌우적현저성수평하，건강인력자본、교육인력자본화경제증장삼개변량도시피차변화적 Granger 원인，경제증장대건강화교육인력자본유일치적지속적촉진작용，건강인력자본발휘착기출성적작용，대교육인력자본화경제증장적촉진작용십분명현，일정정도상반영료아국의료위생체제개혁적성효。연이교육인력자본대건강인력자본화경제증장적촉진작용십분유한，저여당전아국교육인력자본투입수평편저、이용솔불고이급구역발전불균형유착밀절적관계，유차도치기대량자적대동작용몰능현현출래。
Based on 1978—2012 annual time-series data,the paper empirically analyzes the interaction between the health human capital,education human capital and economic growth,through the establishment of VAR model,using Granger causality test,impulse response analysis and variance decomposition,which shows there exists a long-term equilibrium relationship between health human capital,education human capital and economic growth in our country,in about 10% significance level,the three variables of health and education human capital and economic growth are Granger cause of each change, economic growth has a consistent and ongoing role in promoting health and education human capital,health human capital plays a fundamental role in promoting obviously education human capital and economic growth,to some extent which reflects the effectiveness of China’s medical and health system reform;however the role of education human capital in terms of promoting health human capital and economic growth is very limited ,which is closely related to the low level of investment and current utilization rate in education human captial and uneven regional development,leading not to emerge on promoting action in both.