CAJ | 학술논문

在消费者效用最大化的框架基础上，构建财政对农支出、经济波动与农村居民消费的动态最优化模型。理论分析表明，财政对农支出能够促进农村居民消费，经济波动会抑制农村居民消费。通过运用中国1985—2011年的相关数据，在使用多个工具变量消除内生性后，利用2SLS 和 GMM方法对理论分析的结论进行实证检验。结果发现，财政对农支出确实对农村居民消费有显著的正向作用，经济波动则对农村居民消费有显著的负向作用。实证结果还表明，滞后二期的农村居民消费对当期消费有抑制作用，滞后一期则具有促进作用，这说明农村居民消费具有一定时期内的计划性和“棘轮效应”。
재소비자효용최대화적광가기출상，구건재정대농지출、경제파동여농촌거민소비적동태최우화모형。이론분석표명，재정대농지출능구촉진농촌거민소비，경제파동회억제농촌거민소비。통과운용중국1985—2011년적상관수거，재사용다개공구변량소제내생성후，이용2SLS 화 GMM방법대이론분석적결론진행실증검험。결과발현，재정대농지출학실대농촌거민소비유현저적정향작용，경제파동칙대농촌거민소비유현저적부향작용。실증결과환표명，체후이기적농촌거민소비대당기소비유억제작용，체후일기칙구유촉진작용，저설명농촌거민소비구유일정시기내적계화성화“극륜효응”。
In constructing a dynamical optimization model under the framework of consumer utility animation that considers the impact from governmental funding on agriculture,economic volatility and agricultural resident compensation.Theoretical analysis support that governmental funding to agricultural industry can promote the consumption of agricultural residents,but it can be weakened by economic volatility.Using a sample that consisting relevant data spanning from 1985 to 2011,we conduct the empirical tests using 2SLS and GMMafter controlling endogenous issues that confirms the theoretical prediction.In addition, we find that residential consumption of agricultural area that is lagged for two periods can restrict the current consumption, but the result is turned over when the lag is changed into one period.This can be explained by a scheduling feature of their consumption.