CAJ | 학술논문

通过对电离层历史数据的分析，提出将灰理论分析法应用于电离层短期预报。定义灰色距离信息熵以确定样本序列最佳灰色长度，构建新的基于残差的预报模型。然后分别利用中国地区多个电离层观测台站的实测数据进行检验，分析不同地区、季节以及太阳活动水平下的预报残差和精度的特点。预报结果表明，所提的灰理论分析法不仅能够高精度地提前1天预报电离层foF2值，还可用于其他电离层参量的短期预报中，具有一定的工程应用价值。
통과대전리층역사수거적분석，제출장회이론분석법응용우전리층단기예보。정의회색거리신식적이학정양본서렬최가회색장도，구건신적기우잔차적예보모형。연후분별이용중국지구다개전리층관측태참적실측수거진행검험，분석불동지구、계절이급태양활동수평하적예보잔차화정도적특점。예보결과표명，소제적회이론분석법불부능구고정도지제전1천예보전리층foF2치，환가용우기타전리층삼량적단기예보중，구유일정적공정응용개치。
By analysing historical data of ionosphere,we suggest to apply the grey theory analytical method to ionospheric short-term pre-diction.The grey range information entropy is defined to determine the optimum grey length of the sample sequence,and the prediction model based on residual error is constructed as well.Then we examine the model by making use of the measured data derived from multiple iono-spheric observation stations in China respectively,and analyse the prediction residual error in different areas,seasons and solar activity levels and the precision characteristics.Prediction results indicate that the proposed grey theory analytical method can precisely predict the foF2 val-ue of ionosphere 1 day inadvance,and can also be applied to the short-term prediction of other ionospheric parameters,thus has certain applied value in engineering sector.