CAJ | 학술논문

运用灰色模型对未来几年的能源消费结构进行预测，对比中俄合作的天然气输送量，说明我国依靠天然气进口来改变能源消费结构是不可行的。同时，美国通过“页岩气革命”成功改变了美国国内能源结构和能源战略，值得我国借鉴和研究，这也正是我国未来能源消费结构转型的重要途径之一。通过分析当前我国页岩气开发现状，说明页岩气开发带动能源消费结构转型的可行性。
운용회색모형대미래궤년적능원소비결구진행예측，대비중아합작적천연기수송량，설명아국의고천연기진구래개변능원소비결구시불가행적。동시，미국통과“혈암기혁명”성공개변료미국국내능원결구화능원전략，치득아국차감화연구，저야정시아국미래능원소비결구전형적중요도경지일。통과분석당전아국혈암기개발현상，설명혈암기개발대동능원소비결구전형적가행성。
Using Gray Model to forecast the energy consumption structure in the next few years and comparing the gas throughput of cooperation between China and Russia to explain that relying on natu-ral gas imports to change China’s energy consumption structure is not feasible. And the United States successfully changed the energy structure and strategy through the shale gas revolution,which should be referred and researched and which is also one of the important ways to Chinese energy consumption structure transformation in the future. Finally,to explain the feasibility of using shale gas development to drive the transformation of energy consumption structure by analyzing the current status of shale gas development in China.