CAJ | 학술논문

针对近年来不断发生的输油管道重大事故，引入多米诺效应理论分析输油管道事故后果。首先依据多米诺效应机理，建立输油管道重大事故多米诺效应模型，然后采用PHAST软件确定初始事故影响范围，运用设备损坏概率和人员伤亡概率模型计算初始事故对周围设备和个体的影响概率，从而可以从设备损坏、人员伤亡和事故影响范围三个方面定量分析输油管道的事故后果。研究结果对制定输油管道重大事故应急抢险方案，避免事故影响范围进一步扩大具有理论指导意义。
침대근년래불단발생적수유관도중대사고，인입다미낙효응이론분석수유관도사고후과。수선의거다미낙효응궤리，건립수유관도중대사고다미낙효응모형，연후채용PHAST연건학정초시사고영향범위，운용설비손배개솔화인원상망개솔모형계산초시사고대주위설비화개체적영향개솔，종이가이종설비손배、인원상망화사고영향범위삼개방면정량분석수유관도적사고후과。연구결과대제정수유관도중대사고응급창험방안，피면사고영향범위진일보확대구유이론지도의의。
Aiming at the major accidents of oil pipeline happened frequently in recent years, the domino effect the-ory was used to analyze the consequences of oil pipeline accidents.At first, the domino effect model of major acci-dents in oil pipeline was established based on domino effect mechanism.Then, the influences range of initial events was determined by PHAST software, and the equipment damage probability and human casualty probability models were applied to calculate the influence probability of initial events to surrounding equipments and individuals.At last, the accidents consequences of oil pipeline could be quantitatively analyzed from three aspects, namely, equip-ment damage, human casualty and accident influence range.It has important theoretical guiding significance for making the emergency rescue plans of pipeline accident and avoiding the further expanding of accident influence range.