CAJ | 학술논문

埋地钢管的失效受多种因素影响，目前在城市燃气管道设计及在役管道安全性评估中，忽略了各因素的随机性而将其视为确定量。为分析各变量的不确定性对管道安全运行的影响，根据城市埋地燃气管道受力特点建立了管道失效力学模型，运用可靠性理论对模型中影响燃气管道失效的十三个参数进行了敏感性分析。结果表明：材料屈服强度、管道压力、竖直荷载、管道壁厚、管道弯曲系数、管道基座系数等六个随机参数最容易造成管道结构失效，而其余七个参数对管道失效的重要性均不超过1％；各随机参数均值和变异系数的相对变化对管道可靠性的影响不同，屈服强度、管道压力和管道壁厚三个参数的均值变化对可靠性影响最大，与管道壁厚变异系数相比，竖直荷载变异系数变化对可靠性的影响更大。
매지강관적실효수다충인소영향，목전재성시연기관도설계급재역관도안전성평고중，홀략료각인소적수궤성이장기시위학정량。위분석각변량적불학정성대관도안전운행적영향，근거성시매지연기관도수력특점건립료관도실효역학모형，운용가고성이론대모형중영향연기관도실효적십삼개삼수진행료민감성분석。결과표명：재료굴복강도、관도압력、수직하재、관도벽후、관도만곡계수、관도기좌계수등륙개수궤삼수최용역조성관도결구실효，이기여칠개삼수대관도실효적중요성균불초과1％；각수궤삼수균치화변이계수적상대변화대관도가고성적영향불동，굴복강도、관도압력화관도벽후삼개삼수적균치변화대가고성영향최대，여관도벽후변이계수상비，수직하재변이계수변화대가고성적영향경대。
Various factors affect the safe operation of buried steel pipes, while at present their randomness are ig-nored and considered to be deterministic variables in the design of urban gas pipeline and safety assessment of in-service pipeline.To analyze the influence of their uncertainty on pipeline safe operation, the pipeline failure me-chanical model was established according to the stress characteristics of urban buried gas pipeline.By applying reli-ability theory, the sensitivity of thirteen parameters influencing pipeline failure in the model were analyzed.The re-sults showed that, the material yield strength, internal fluid pressure, vertical loading, wall thickness, bending-moment coefficient, and deflection coefficient are more inclined to cause the failure of pipeline, while the impor-tance of all the other seven parameters are not exceed 1%.Moreover, the relative change of mean value and varia-tion coefficient of different parameters have different effects on pipeline reliability.The changes in mean value of three parameters, including yield strength, internal fluid pressure and wall thickness are of most significant influ-ence on reliability, while the change in variation coefficient of vertical load is more important than the variation co-efficient of wall thickness.