CAJ | 학술논문

在分析城市公共安全涉及的领域和影响维度基础上提出城市公共安全风险评估模型。以重庆市2005～2011年数据为研究对象，采用数理统计和灰色理论方法，针对重庆市建立了城市公共安全风险评估指标体系。结合因子分析与灰色理论方法，提取出十项一级指标，分别为地质灾害、气象灾害、人口特征、基础设施、基础设施控制能力、事故灾害、公共卫生、公共卫生控制能力、治安、刑事；通过敏感性计算结果表明：滑坡、洪涝、城市人口密度、燃气、排水、交通事故、人均绿地面积等问题对重庆市公共安全程度影响最突出。
재분석성시공공안전섭급적영역화영향유도기출상제출성시공공안전풍험평고모형。이중경시2005～2011년수거위연구대상，채용수리통계화회색이론방법，침대중경시건립료성시공공안전풍험평고지표체계。결합인자분석여회색이론방법，제취출십항일급지표，분별위지질재해、기상재해、인구특정、기출설시、기출설시공제능력、사고재해、공공위생、공공위생공제능력、치안、형사；통과민감성계산결과표명：활파、홍로、성시인구밀도、연기、배수、교통사고、인균록지면적등문제대중경시공공안전정도영향최돌출。
A risk assessment model of urban public safety was put forward based on the analysis of two dimensions ( areas and influence) involved in urban public safety.Taking the data from 2005 to 2011 in Chongqing as the re-search object, by using mathematical statistics and gray theory method, the index system of risk assessment on ur-ban public safety was established.Combining the factor analysis and gray correlation method, ten first-level indica-tors were determine, namely, geological disasters, meteorological disasters, demographic characteristics, infra-structure, infrastructure control capability, accident hazards, public health, public health control capability, poli-cing and criminal.The calculation results of sensitivity showed that:landslides, floods, urban population density, gas, drainage, traffic accidents and per capita green area are most prominent on the impact of public safety in Chongqing.