CAJ | 학술논문

为了对深基坑工程施工期间地质灾害进行先期预警，使用了改进的灰色系统作为预测工具，对基坑周围建筑物的沉降进行了预测。对于灰色预测系统的改进包括对数据序列初始值的改进和对灰色系统模型背景值的改进，以及实测数据转换为单调增序列的方法。使用相对误差检验、关联度检验和后验差检验对模型的精度进行了评价。最后将改进后的灰色系统与原系统的预测结果进行了对比，结果表明：在短期预测方面，灰色系统模型和改进的灰色系统模型都有很高的精度。对于长期预测，改进的灰色系统模型对中长期预测有很好的精度。
위료대심기갱공정시공기간지질재해진행선기예경，사용료개진적회색계통작위예측공구，대기갱주위건축물적침강진행료예측。대우회색예측계통적개진포괄대수거서렬초시치적개진화대회색계통모형배경치적개진，이급실측수거전환위단조증서렬적방법。사용상대오차검험、관련도검험화후험차검험대모형적정도진행료평개。최후장개진후적회색계통여원계통적예측결과진행료대비，결과표명：재단기예측방면，회색계통모형화개진적회색계통모형도유흔고적정도。대우장기예측，개진적회색계통모형대중장기예측유흔호적정도。
In order to carry on early warning of geological disasters in construction period of deep foundation pit en-gineering, an improved gray system was used as a predictive tool for predictions on settling of buildings surrounding the pit.Improvements to the gray prediction system included the following parts: the improvements to the initial value of the data series, and the improvements to the background values of gray system model, and the method to convert measured data into a monotonically increasing sequence.The accuracy of model was evaluated by using rel-ative error test, correlation test and posterior error test.Finally, the prediction results of improved gray system was compared with that of original system.It showed that gray system model and improved gray system model have high accuracy in terms of short-term prediction.The improved gray system model has good accuracy on long-term predic-tion.