CAJ | 학술논문

文章基于2005年7月21日我国人民币汇率改革以来的连续时间序列数据和离散数据，利用多元回归模型，实证研究了人民币汇率市场化改革以来我国货币政策对人民币汇率的影响。实证结果表明：我国货币政策的两个变量—货币供应量和利率，会对人民币汇率产生显著的影响，其中人民币货币供应量增加会引起人民币汇率贬值，银行间信用隔夜拆借利率上升可以引起人民币汇率升值。因此，中国在稳步推进人民币汇率制度改革同时，应有效监控我国货币供应量对汇率的影响，密切关注银行间同业拆解利率对人民币汇率波动的影响，从而促进我国经济内外平衡和外汇市场的平稳健康发展。
문장기우2005년7월21일아국인민폐회솔개혁이래적련속시간서렬수거화리산수거，이용다원회귀모형，실증연구료인민폐회솔시장화개혁이래아국화폐정책대인민폐회솔적영향。실증결과표명：아국화폐정책적량개변량—화폐공응량화리솔，회대인민폐회솔산생현저적영향，기중인민폐화폐공응량증가회인기인민폐회솔폄치，은행간신용격야탁차리솔상승가이인기인민폐회솔승치。인차，중국재은보추진인민폐회솔제도개혁동시，응유효감공아국화폐공응량대회솔적영향，밀절관주은행간동업탁해리솔대인민폐회솔파동적영향，종이촉진아국경제내외평형화외회시장적평은건강발전。
This paper empirically studies the impact of china's monetary policy on the RMB exchange rate by using multivariate regression models on the basis of a continuous time series data and discrete data since July 21, 2005 of the RMB exchange rate market-oriented reforms. The empirical results show that the two variables of china's monetary policy-the money supply and interest rates have a significant effect on the RMB exchange rate. The increase in money supply will cause RMB exchange rate depreciation and the increase in overnight lending rate of the inter-banks will cause RMB exchange rate appreciation. Therefore, when steadily promoting the reform of RMB exchange rate regime, China should effectively monitor the effect of money supply on the exchange rate and pay close attention to the impact of interbank interest rates on the RMB exchange rate fluctuations so as to contribute to internal and external balance of the economy and the stable and healthy development of the foreign exchange market.