预测
預測
예측
FORECASTING
2014年
6期
37-42
,共6页
产能过剩%产能利用率%特征%潜在需求%化解
產能過剩%產能利用率%特徵%潛在需求%化解
산능과잉%산능이용솔%특정%잠재수구%화해
overcapacity%rate of capacity utilization%features%potential demand%resolve
目前，各界普遍认为当前我国钢铁、水泥行业存在严重的产能过剩。笔者认为，这种观点值得商榷。这是因为：以产能利用率为指标评价产能过剩状况，其科学性需要商讨；当前我国钢铁、水泥行业的产能过剩具有阶段性、结构性、区域性和相对性等几个特征；基于我国现存的巨大潜在需求转化为现实需求将有效释放过剩产能的判断，得出我国现阶段的产能过剩是伪过剩。在此基础上，立足发挥宏观调控和市场机制双重作用，从控制新增、消化现存、淘汰落后等几方面提出化解过剩产能的政策建议。
目前，各界普遍認為噹前我國鋼鐵、水泥行業存在嚴重的產能過剩。筆者認為，這種觀點值得商榷。這是因為：以產能利用率為指標評價產能過剩狀況，其科學性需要商討；噹前我國鋼鐵、水泥行業的產能過剩具有階段性、結構性、區域性和相對性等幾箇特徵；基于我國現存的巨大潛在需求轉化為現實需求將有效釋放過剩產能的判斷，得齣我國現階段的產能過剩是偽過剩。在此基礎上，立足髮揮宏觀調控和市場機製雙重作用，從控製新增、消化現存、淘汰落後等幾方麵提齣化解過剩產能的政策建議。
목전，각계보편인위당전아국강철、수니행업존재엄중적산능과잉。필자인위，저충관점치득상각。저시인위：이산능이용솔위지표평개산능과잉상황，기과학성수요상토；당전아국강철、수니행업적산능과잉구유계단성、결구성、구역성화상대성등궤개특정；기우아국현존적거대잠재수구전화위현실수구장유효석방과잉산능적판단，득출아국현계단적산능과잉시위과잉。재차기출상，립족발휘굉관조공화시장궤제쌍중작용，종공제신증、소화현존、도태락후등궤방면제출화해과잉산능적정책건의。
At present, it is generally believed that there is serious overcapacity in China’ s steel and cement industry. In my opinion, this point of view is debatable for the following reasons:first, assessing the situation of overcapacity by the rate of capacity utilization is questionable;second, the current overcapacity of steel and cement industry has periodic, structural, regional and relative features;based on the judgment that China’ s tremendous existing potential demand can be transformed into real demand and therefore effectively release the overcapacity, I can draw the conclusion that the current overcapacity is an illusion. From this analysis, by giving full play to the role of macro-regulation and market mechanism, this article offers some policy recommendations to resolve the problem of overcapacity, including controlling expansion of production capacity, digesting existing capacity and eliminating backward capacity, etc.
