CAJ | 학술논문

对2011年7月24～25日发生在华北地区的一次暴雨过程进行了分析，并以 NCEP 资料为初值场对此次暴雨过程进行了数值模拟，结合实况对模拟结果进行对比分析。分析表明：模式对本次华北暴雨的模拟比较成功，基本反映出了本次暴雨过程的降水分布特点。利用湿热力平流参数对本次华北地区的降水落区进行了诊断分析。分析指出，湿热力平流参数纬向平均的垂直剖面图上，湿热力平流参数的高值区及大值中心与地面的强降水雨区对应得较好，其梯度大小及向上延伸高度均可以定性地指示降水的强弱；垂直积分的湿热力平流参数与地面6 h 强降水落区具有较好的对应关系，而在示踪弱降水区时效果并不是很好，其大值中心并不与强降水中心完全重叠，而是其梯度大值区与降水中心相对应；垂直积分的湿热力平流参数与6 h 累积地面降水的空间分布特征和时间演变趋势比较相似，并且其变化趋势能反映降水的发展和消弱。
대2011년7월24～25일발생재화북지구적일차폭우과정진행료분석，병이 NCEP 자료위초치장대차차폭우과정진행료수치모의，결합실황대모의결과진행대비분석。분석표명：모식대본차화북폭우적모의비교성공，기본반영출료본차폭우과정적강수분포특점。이용습열력평류삼수대본차화북지구적강수락구진행료진단분석。분석지출，습열력평류삼수위향평균적수직부면도상，습열력평류삼수적고치구급대치중심여지면적강강수우구대응득교호，기제도대소급향상연신고도균가이정성지지시강수적강약；수직적분적습열력평류삼수여지면6 h 강강수락구구유교호적대응관계，이재시종약강수구시효과병불시흔호，기대치중심병불여강강수중심완전중첩，이시기제도대치구여강수중심상대응；수직적분적습열력평류삼수여6 h 루적지면강수적공간분포특정화시간연변추세비교상사，병차기변화추세능반영강수적발전화소약。
A rainstorm process that occurred during 24–25 Jul 2011 is analyzed by numerical simulation performed with NCEP data used for the initial field. The numerical simulation accurately simulates this rainfall process and essentially reflects the rainfall distribution characteristics. The moist thermodynamic advection parameter is chosen to perform diagnostic analysis for the rainfall region. Results show that in the meridional?vertical cross section of the zonal mean of the moist thermodynamic advection parameter, the high-value areas, and the centers of the moist thermodynamic advection parameter coincide well with the heavy rainfall region and that the gradient and the upward height can qualitatively indicate the intensity. The vertical integral of the moist thermodynamic advection parameter can trace the heavy rainfall region more accurately than the light rainfall region. The centers of the moist thermodynamic advection parameter do not completely overlap the heavy rain centers; instead, the high-value areas of the gradient correspond to the centers. Moreover, the moist thermodynamic advection parameter has a spatial distribution and time evolution trend similar to those of the simulated 6 h accumulated precipitation, and its change trend can reflect the increase and decrease of precipitation.