CAJ | 학술논문

利用组合权重法将地质灾害易发区等级和降雨量等级进行有机的结合，建立了基于组合权重的汛期地质灾害预警预报模型。以吉林省为例检验其有效性。将研究区域剖分为5702(5 km×5 km)个单元格，对每个单元格的地质灾害发生的可能性进行了等级预报。通过对已发生的地质灾害及降雨量的历史资料进行验证可知，该预报结果的精准率达到了93.25%，其预报结果是合理可行的。
이용조합권중법장지질재해역발구등급화강우량등급진행유궤적결합，건립료기우조합권중적신기지질재해예경예보모형。이길림성위례검험기유효성。장연구구역부분위5702(5 km×5 km)개단원격，대매개단원격적지질재해발생적가능성진행료등급예보。통과대이발생적지질재해급강우량적역사자료진행험증가지，해예보결과적정준솔체도료93.25%，기예보결과시합리가행적。
The authors divided grades for the geological disaster-prone zone and rainfalls by weight method,and established a flood warning and forecasting model of geological disasters based on combination weights.Its effectiveness was tested for taking Jilin Province as an example.The study area was subdivided into 5 702 (5 km × 5 km)cells,and the possibility of geological disasters in each cell was forecasted in grade.By using the historical data of geological disasters and rainfalls,the forecast results are verified and the accurate rates reach 93.25%,which is reasonable and feasible.