吉林大学学报(地球科学版)
吉林大學學報(地毬科學版)
길림대학학보(지구과학판)
JOURNAL OF JILIN UNIVERSITY(EARTH SCIENCE EDITION)
2014年
6期
1973-1979
,共7页
灰色模型%马尔可夫链%降水量%预测%吉林省
灰色模型%馬爾可伕鏈%降水量%預測%吉林省
회색모형%마이가부련%강수량%예측%길림성
gray model%Markov chain%precipitation%predication%Jilin Province
为了更准确地对吉林省降水量进行预测,分析其时空变化特征,应用无偏灰色马尔可夫链模型对8个具有代表性的雨量站进行降水量预测,并根据预报结果讨论历史数据波动性与预报精度的关系。其中:83%以上预测结果合格,白城、乾安、长春、蛟河、四平、通化6个地区降水量多年呈递减趋势,减幅分别为0.23%、0.09%、0.24%、1.01%、0.51%、0.54%;延吉、靖宇2个地区降水量多年呈递增趋势,增幅分别为2.60%、0.54%。结果表明:无偏灰色马尔可夫链模型预测精度较高,说明该方法适用于吉林省的降水量预测;吉林省中西部地区降水量呈递减趋势,东部地区呈递增趋势,但变幅不大;在波动性与预报精度的关系方面,时间序列的波动性越大预测所产生的误差越大。
為瞭更準確地對吉林省降水量進行預測,分析其時空變化特徵,應用無偏灰色馬爾可伕鏈模型對8箇具有代錶性的雨量站進行降水量預測,併根據預報結果討論歷史數據波動性與預報精度的關繫。其中:83%以上預測結果閤格,白城、乾安、長春、蛟河、四平、通化6箇地區降水量多年呈遞減趨勢,減幅分彆為0.23%、0.09%、0.24%、1.01%、0.51%、0.54%;延吉、靖宇2箇地區降水量多年呈遞增趨勢,增幅分彆為2.60%、0.54%。結果錶明:無偏灰色馬爾可伕鏈模型預測精度較高,說明該方法適用于吉林省的降水量預測;吉林省中西部地區降水量呈遞減趨勢,東部地區呈遞增趨勢,但變幅不大;在波動性與預報精度的關繫方麵,時間序列的波動性越大預測所產生的誤差越大。
위료경준학지대길림성강수량진행예측,분석기시공변화특정,응용무편회색마이가부련모형대8개구유대표성적우량참진행강수량예측,병근거예보결과토론역사수거파동성여예보정도적관계。기중:83%이상예측결과합격,백성、건안、장춘、교하、사평、통화6개지구강수량다년정체감추세,감폭분별위0.23%、0.09%、0.24%、1.01%、0.51%、0.54%;연길、정우2개지구강수량다년정체증추세,증폭분별위2.60%、0.54%。결과표명:무편회색마이가부련모형예측정도교고,설명해방법괄용우길림성적강수량예측;길림성중서부지구강수량정체감추세,동부지구정체증추세,단변폭불대;재파동성여예보정도적관계방면,시간서렬적파동성월대예측소산생적오차월대。
For more accurately predication and analysis of the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of precipitation of eight representative stations of Jilin Province,we used the unbiased grey Markov chain model to discuss the relationship between historical data volatility and the forecast accuracy.More than 83% predicted results are qualified.Baicheng,Qian’an,Changchun,Jiaohe, Siping,Tonghua six regional yearly precipitation shows a trend of decline,the damping ranges are 0.23%,0.09%,0.24%,1.01%,0.5 1%,0.54%;while Yanji and Jingyu two regional precipitation is increasing,with growth rates of 2.6% and 0.54% respectively.The results show that the modified unbiased gray Markov chain model is suitable for Jilin Province’s precipitation forecast with higher accuracy.It shows that the precipitation has a trend of decreasing in Midwest of Jilin Province and the precipitation has a trend of increasing in eastern of Jilin Province.In the relation between volatility and forecast precision,the study finds that the greater the volatility of time series is,the larger the prediction error is.