浙江电力
浙江電力
절강전력
ZHEJIANG ELECTRIC POWER
2014年
11期
9-14
,共6页
短期负荷预测%气温%相似日%灰色系统
短期負荷預測%氣溫%相似日%灰色繫統
단기부하예측%기온%상사일%회색계통
short-term load forecast%air temperature%similar days%grey system
以镇海电网作为研究对象,将影响电网负荷的外界因素量化为特征向量,并修正了最高温度,采用相似日选择法选取与待预测日相似程度最高的日期作为输入样本,通过灰色系统的计算得到负荷预测值。通过对镇海电网工作日和节假日分别进行负荷预测分析,验证了此方法的实用性和有效性。
以鎮海電網作為研究對象,將影響電網負荷的外界因素量化為特徵嚮量,併脩正瞭最高溫度,採用相似日選擇法選取與待預測日相似程度最高的日期作為輸入樣本,通過灰色繫統的計算得到負荷預測值。通過對鎮海電網工作日和節假日分彆進行負荷預測分析,驗證瞭此方法的實用性和有效性。
이진해전망작위연구대상,장영향전망부하적외계인소양화위특정향량,병수정료최고온도,채용상사일선택법선취여대예측일상사정도최고적일기작위수입양본,통과회색계통적계산득도부하예측치。통과대진해전망공작일화절가일분별진행부하예측분석,험증료차방법적실용성화유효성。
This paper investigates on Zhenhai power grid and quantifies external factors that influence grid load as characteristic vectors. Furthermore, it corrects the maximum temperature, adopts the date which is very well similar to the forecast day as the forecast day by using similar day selection method and concludes load forecast value by grey system calculation. By forecast and analysis on load in working day and festivals and holidays, practicality and effectiveness of the method are verified.