西南师范大学学报(自然科学版)
西南師範大學學報(自然科學版)
서남사범대학학보(자연과학판)
JOURNAL OF SOUTHWEST CHINA NORMAL UNIVERSITY
2014年
11期
169-175
,共7页
大麦%气象产量%相关分析%偏回归系数
大麥%氣象產量%相關分析%偏迴歸繫數
대맥%기상산량%상관분석%편회귀계수
barley%meteorological yield%correlation analysis%partial regression coefficient
利用冕宁县2002-2011年大麦播种、出苗、三叶、分蘖、拔节、孕穗、抽穗、开花、乳熟、成熟10个发育期的实际观测资料,统计出各发育期间的间隔日数、平均气温、降水量、日照时数、活动积温、气温日较差以及每年的实际产量.采用直线滑动平均方法分离出气象产量,并将其与各发育期间的气象因子分别进行点聚图和相关性统计分析,得到不同时段影响冕宁县大麦产量波动的重要气象因子:拔节到孕穗期的间隔日数、平均气温和气温日较差,孕穗到抽穗期的气温日较差,开花到乳熟期的平均气温,三叶到分蘖期的日照时数和孕穗到抽穗期>0℃积温;再用积分回归求偏回归系数,分析不同发育期气象因子对气象产量的影响程度,得到影响产量的主要气象因素是播种到出苗期的平均气温 a(t)值为236.16 kg/hm2?℃,孕穗到抽穗期的气温日较差 a(t)值为64.73 kg/hm2?℃,其次是播种到出苗期的>0℃积温 a(t)值为34.79 kg/hm2?℃.
利用冕寧縣2002-2011年大麥播種、齣苗、三葉、分蘗、拔節、孕穗、抽穗、開花、乳熟、成熟10箇髮育期的實際觀測資料,統計齣各髮育期間的間隔日數、平均氣溫、降水量、日照時數、活動積溫、氣溫日較差以及每年的實際產量.採用直線滑動平均方法分離齣氣象產量,併將其與各髮育期間的氣象因子分彆進行點聚圖和相關性統計分析,得到不同時段影響冕寧縣大麥產量波動的重要氣象因子:拔節到孕穗期的間隔日數、平均氣溫和氣溫日較差,孕穗到抽穗期的氣溫日較差,開花到乳熟期的平均氣溫,三葉到分蘗期的日照時數和孕穗到抽穗期>0℃積溫;再用積分迴歸求偏迴歸繫數,分析不同髮育期氣象因子對氣象產量的影響程度,得到影響產量的主要氣象因素是播種到齣苗期的平均氣溫 a(t)值為236.16 kg/hm2?℃,孕穗到抽穗期的氣溫日較差 a(t)值為64.73 kg/hm2?℃,其次是播種到齣苗期的>0℃積溫 a(t)值為34.79 kg/hm2?℃.
이용면저현2002-2011년대맥파충、출묘、삼협、분얼、발절、잉수、추수、개화、유숙、성숙10개발육기적실제관측자료,통계출각발육기간적간격일수、평균기온、강수량、일조시수、활동적온、기온일교차이급매년적실제산량.채용직선활동평균방법분리출기상산량,병장기여각발육기간적기상인자분별진행점취도화상관성통계분석,득도불동시단영향면저현대맥산량파동적중요기상인자:발절도잉수기적간격일수、평균기온화기온일교차,잉수도추수기적기온일교차,개화도유숙기적평균기온,삼협도분얼기적일조시수화잉수도추수기>0℃적온;재용적분회귀구편회귀계수,분석불동발육기기상인자대기상산량적영향정도,득도영향산량적주요기상인소시파충도출묘기적평균기온 a(t)치위236.16 kg/hm2?℃,잉수도추수기적기온일교차 a(t)치위64.73 kg/hm2?℃,기차시파충도출묘기적>0℃적온 a(t)치위34.79 kg/hm2?℃.
The actual observation data of 10 puberties of barley (sowing ,emergence ,trilobites ,tillering , jointing and booting ,heading ,flowering ,mature milk ,and ripe ,) is made to get the statistics of the inter‐val numbers ,the average temperature ,precipitation ,sunshine time ,active accumulated temperature ,air temperature daily range and the actual output of each year during the development in Mianning County from 2002 to 2011 .The straight‐line moving average method has been used to isolate the meteorological yield .With the meteorological factors during the development point figure and correlation statistical analy ‐sis respectively ,different times important meteorological factors influencing Mianning barley yield fluctua‐tion was got ,which includes the following :interval days of the Jointing stage to booting stage ,the aver‐age temperature and the temperature diurnal range ;temperature diurnal range of booting to heading stage ;the average temperature from flowering to the ratooning buds ;sunshine time of the 3‐leaf to tillering and the accumulated temperature booting to heading stage > 0 ℃ .The integral regression and partial regres‐sion coefficient is made use of to analyze the influence of different developmental stages of meteorological factors on meteorological yield .The conclusion is drawn that the main meteorological factors affecting the yield were that average temperature a(t) value from sowing into the seedling is 236 .16 kg/hm squared ? ℃ ;the tem‐perature diurnal range a (t) value from booting to heading stage is 64 .73 kg/hm 2 ? ℃ .Secondly a(t) value from sowing to the seedling > 0 ℃ accumulated temperature is 34 .79 kg/hm squared ? ℃ .