华东经济管理
華東經濟管理
화동경제관리
EAST CHINA ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT
2014年
12期
50-53
,共4页
金融压抑%通货膨胀%MSVAR模型
金融壓抑%通貨膨脹%MSVAR模型
금융압억%통화팽창%MSVAR모형
financial repression%inflation%MSVAR model
文章运用MSVAR模型对我国金融压抑程度与通货膨胀的关系进行了研究，发现我国通货膨胀率存在明显的高通胀区域和低通胀区域特征。在高通胀区域，价格高位持续时间较短，波动幅度大，金融压抑对通货膨胀具有显著的负向效应；而在低通胀区域，价格低位持续时间较长，波动幅度小，金融压抑对通胀水平的效应是正向的。两者的非线性特征对货币政策实施和金融自由化策略有着重要的政策含义。
文章運用MSVAR模型對我國金融壓抑程度與通貨膨脹的關繫進行瞭研究，髮現我國通貨膨脹率存在明顯的高通脹區域和低通脹區域特徵。在高通脹區域，價格高位持續時間較短，波動幅度大，金融壓抑對通貨膨脹具有顯著的負嚮效應；而在低通脹區域，價格低位持續時間較長，波動幅度小，金融壓抑對通脹水平的效應是正嚮的。兩者的非線性特徵對貨幣政策實施和金融自由化策略有著重要的政策含義。
문장운용MSVAR모형대아국금융압억정도여통화팽창적관계진행료연구，발현아국통화팽창솔존재명현적고통창구역화저통창구역특정。재고통창구역，개격고위지속시간교단，파동폭도대，금융압억대통화팽창구유현저적부향효응；이재저통창구역，개격저위지속시간교장，파동폭도소，금융압억대통창수평적효응시정향적。량자적비선성특정대화폐정책실시화금융자유화책략유착중요적정책함의。
The paper makes a study on the relationship between financial repression and inflation rate in China by applying Markov switching vector autoregression (MSVAR) model. It finds that China’s inflation rate has obvious characteristics of high inflation regions and low inflation regions. In the regions of high inflation, high price sustains a shorter time but big fluctuations, and financial repression has a significant negative effect on inflation. However, in the regions of low infla?tion,low price lasts a longer time but small fluctuations,and the effect of financial repression on inflation is positive. The nonlinear features between the two have important implications to the formulation and implementation of monetary policy and financial liberalization.
