CAJ | 학술논문

文章基于我国30个省、市、自治区1990-2012年的面板数据，采用面板平滑转换（PSTR）模型研究了我国城镇化与经济增长间的非线性关系；选取滞后城镇化率、产业结构和能源消费作为阈值变量，使用工具变量法估计模型，其主要实证研究结果为：除低水平的人均能源消费量情况外，三个非线性模型都显示城镇化和经济增长间的正相关关系；随着城镇化水平的提升，城镇化对经济增长的弹性会下降，而随着第三产业比重和人均能源消费量的增加，该弹性会增加；弹性数值随着时间的推移呈现增加趋势，到2010年开始呈现下降趋势。文章最后分析了不同地区弹性系数值的差异情况。
문장기우아국30개성、시、자치구1990-2012년적면판수거，채용면판평활전환（PSTR）모형연구료아국성진화여경제증장간적비선성관계；선취체후성진화솔、산업결구화능원소비작위역치변량，사용공구변량법고계모형，기주요실증연구결과위：제저수평적인균능원소비량정황외，삼개비선성모형도현시성진화화경제증장간적정상관관계；수착성진화수평적제승，성진화대경제증장적탄성회하강，이수착제삼산업비중화인균능원소비량적증가，해탄성회증가；탄성수치수착시간적추이정현증가추세，도2010년개시정현하강추세。문장최후분석료불동지구탄성계수치적차이정황。
The paper applies the panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) model to examine the nonlinear relationship be?tween urbanization and economic growth in China based on the panel data of 30 provinces,autonomous regions and munici?palities during the year of 1990 to 2012. It selects three threshold variables,which are lagged urbanization rate,industrial structure and energy consumption, and uses instrumental variable approach to estimate the PSTR model. The main empiri?cal results are as follows: Three nonlinear models show a positive correlation between urbanization and economic growth ex?cept for the low level of energy consumption per capita; The elasticity of urbanization on economic growth drops with the de?velopment of urbanization,whereas it rises with the increase of the tertiary industry proportion and energy consumption per capita; The elasticity presents an increasing trend with the lapse of time,and starting to decline after the year of 2000. Fi?nally,the paper analyzes the discrepancies of elastic coefficients in different regions.