CAJ | 학술논문

文章分别选取GDP、能源生产总量与消费总量、CO2排放量作为经济、能源和环境子系统指标，利用1995-2012年的数据构建了山东省能源经济环境系统向量自回归（VAR）模型，对1997-2015年系统状况进行动态预测，并运用Granger检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解对其进行动态分析。结果表明：到2015年，山东省GDP、能源生产总量与消费总量、CO2排放量仍将保持较快的增长；长期来看，经济增长与碳排放存在双向Granger因果关系，从经济增长到能源消费、能源生产和能源消费到碳排放均具有单向Granger因果关系；短期内，能源生产、能源消费与经济增长之间相互促进，经济增长促进碳排放，而能源生产、能源消费和碳排放之间具有一定的相互影响。山东省应适当放缓GDP增速，并优化经济结构；发展低碳能源，优化能源消费结构；继续强化实施碳减排政策。
문장분별선취GDP、능원생산총량여소비총량、CO2배방량작위경제、능원화배경자계통지표，이용1995-2012년적수거구건료산동성능원경제배경계통향량자회귀（VAR）모형，대1997-2015년계통상황진행동태예측，병운용Granger검험、맥충향응함수화방차분해대기진행동태분석。결과표명：도2015년，산동성GDP、능원생산총량여소비총량、CO2배방량잉장보지교쾌적증장；장기래간，경제증장여탄배방존재쌍향Granger인과관계，종경제증장도능원소비、능원생산화능원소비도탄배방균구유단향Granger인과관계；단기내，능원생산、능원소비여경제증장지간상호촉진，경제증장촉진탄배방，이능원생산、능원소비화탄배방지간구유일정적상호영향。산동성응괄당방완GDP증속，병우화경제결구；발전저탄능원，우화능원소비결구；계속강화실시탄감배정책。
The paper selects GDP,total energy production and total energy consumption,and CO2 emissions as the index?es of economy,energy and environment subsystems respectively. Based on the data during the year of 1995 to 2012,it con?structs the vector autoregressive (VAR) model of energy,economy and environment system of Shandong province,dynami?cally predicts the situation of the system from the year of 1997 to 2015 , and makes a dynamic analysis on the system by applying Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition. The results show that: GDP, total energy production and total energy consumption, and CO2 emissions of Shandong province maintain rapid growth by 2015;in the long term, there are bidirectional Granger causality relations between economic growth and carbon emissions, and unidirectional Granger causality relationship from economic growth to energy consumption,and from energy production and energy consumption to carbon emissions; in the short term, energy production, energy consumption and economic growth promote each other,economic growth increases carbon emissions,whereas energy production,energy consumption and car?bon emissions have certain influences each other. Shandong province should slow down GDP growth appropriately,and opti?mize economic structure, develop low-carbon energies, optimize energy consumption structure and continue to strengthen the implementation of carbon emission reduction policies.