热带地理
熱帶地理
열대지리
TROPICAL GEOGRAPHY
2014年
6期
804-813
,共10页
赵翃婷%刘希林%余承君%尚志海
趙翃婷%劉希林%餘承君%尚誌海
조굉정%류희림%여승군%상지해
崩塌%滑坡和泥石流灾害%易损度评价%风险评价%时空变化%广东省
崩塌%滑坡和泥石流災害%易損度評價%風險評價%時空變化%廣東省
붕탑%활파화니석류재해%역손도평개%풍험평개%시공변화%광동성
collapse,landslide and debris flow%vulnerability assessment%risk assessment%temporal-spatial changes%Guangdong Province
崩塌、滑坡和泥石流是广东省比较常见的地质灾害，认知其风险分布的时空变化及其驱动因素，对于制定广东省防灾减灾政策具有重要意义。在现有泥石流灾害易损度评价模型基础上，通过建立农林牧副渔及其相关产业产值与土地资源价值之间的关系，获得了土地资源价值定量计算的间接方法，解决了易损性评价中土地利用资料难以获取的问题。对比分析了2000―2010年10年间广东省崩塌、滑坡和泥石流灾害风险的时空变化。2010年各区县平均风险度为0.366，以各区县面积加权平均风险度为0.363，分别比2000年升高了0.017和0.014；2010年高度风险区县43个，比2000年增加了10个；2010年高度风险区面积89262 km2，比2000年增加了24301 km2。2010年全省高度风险区面积主要以珠三角地区为中心连片向沿海地区扩展。经济社会发展水平的显著提高，推高了崩塌、滑坡和泥石流灾害风险，并改变了灾害风险的分布格局，成为风险时空变化的主要驱动因素。
崩塌、滑坡和泥石流是廣東省比較常見的地質災害，認知其風險分佈的時空變化及其驅動因素，對于製定廣東省防災減災政策具有重要意義。在現有泥石流災害易損度評價模型基礎上，通過建立農林牧副漁及其相關產業產值與土地資源價值之間的關繫，穫得瞭土地資源價值定量計算的間接方法，解決瞭易損性評價中土地利用資料難以穫取的問題。對比分析瞭2000―2010年10年間廣東省崩塌、滑坡和泥石流災害風險的時空變化。2010年各區縣平均風險度為0.366，以各區縣麵積加權平均風險度為0.363，分彆比2000年升高瞭0.017和0.014；2010年高度風險區縣43箇，比2000年增加瞭10箇；2010年高度風險區麵積89262 km2，比2000年增加瞭24301 km2。2010年全省高度風險區麵積主要以珠三角地區為中心連片嚮沿海地區擴展。經濟社會髮展水平的顯著提高，推高瞭崩塌、滑坡和泥石流災害風險，併改變瞭災害風險的分佈格跼，成為風險時空變化的主要驅動因素。
붕탑、활파화니석류시광동성비교상견적지질재해，인지기풍험분포적시공변화급기구동인소，대우제정광동성방재감재정책구유중요의의。재현유니석류재해역손도평개모형기출상，통과건립농림목부어급기상관산업산치여토지자원개치지간적관계，획득료토지자원개치정량계산적간접방법，해결료역손성평개중토지이용자료난이획취적문제。대비분석료2000―2010년10년간광동성붕탑、활파화니석류재해풍험적시공변화。2010년각구현평균풍험도위0.366，이각구현면적가권평균풍험도위0.363，분별비2000년승고료0.017화0.014；2010년고도풍험구현43개，비2000년증가료10개；2010년고도풍험구면적89262 km2，비2000년증가료24301 km2。2010년전성고도풍험구면적주요이주삼각지구위중심련편향연해지구확전。경제사회발전수평적현저제고，추고료붕탑、활파화니석류재해풍험，병개변료재해풍험적분포격국，성위풍험시공변화적주요구동인소。
Collapse, landslide and debris flow are common geological hazards in Guangdong, China. To understand the temporal and spatial changes of the risk of collapse, landslide and debris flow in the province and their driving factors are of great significance for the regional development and hazard prevention and reduction. As it is difficult to obtain the value of land resources directly, in this paper, based on existed evaluation model on debris flow hazard’s vulnerability, land resource value is estimated indirectly by using the regression equation between land value and the output values of farming, forestry, animal husbandry, side-line production and fishery, and related industries. Thus the problem of quantitative evaluation of vulnerability can be solved. Temporal and spatial variations of collapse, landslide and debris flow risk in Guangdong during the 10 years from 2000 to 2010 are analysed comparatively. The results show that in 2010, the average risk of collapse, landslide and debris flow in Guangdong was 0.366, and the areal weighted average risk was 0.363, increasing by 0.017 and 0.014, respectively, as compared with those in 2000. In 2010, the number of the counties with high risk was 43, increased by 10 as compared with that in 2000. In 2010, the area with high risk was 89 262 km2, which was 24 301 km2 more than that in 2000. The high risk area mainly increased in the Pearl River Delta region, and expanded to coastal area. The economic and social development of Guangdong has significantly increased, which also causes an increase of the risk of collapse, landslide and debris flow, as well as the changes of the temporal and spatial patterns of the risk. The change of the economic and social conditions is the main driving factor for the temporal and spatial variations of collapse, landslide and debris flow risk in the province.
