CAJ | 학술논문

根据实际资料，首先通过对建筑物查证，新、旧地图对比，实地访问群众，确定了1908―1944年粤海关气象观测场的确切地理位置为23°06′N，113°05′E。通过对气温对比分析、差值订正、回归分析、置信度检验，得出1908―1944年粤海关的地表年平均气温比天河高0.392℃；据1960―1997年同步资料比较得出，作为研究气温的气候变化趋势，1998年以后的天河站地表年平均气温可用番禺站作参考。对订正后具有连续性、代表性、均一性的资料序列进行趋势分析得出，广州中心城区天河1914―2013年的地表年平均气温上升率为1.75℃/100 a，高于同一时段全球地表年平均气温上升率（0.72℃/100 a），原因与20世纪80年代末出现热岛现象及快速城市化有关。
근거실제자료，수선통과대건축물사증，신、구지도대비，실지방문군음，학정료1908―1944년월해관기상관측장적학절지리위치위23°06′N，113°05′E。통과대기온대비분석、차치정정、회귀분석、치신도검험，득출1908―1944년월해관적지표년평균기온비천하고0.392℃；거1960―1997년동보자료비교득출，작위연구기온적기후변화추세，1998년이후적천하참지표년평균기온가용번우참작삼고。대정정후구유련속성、대표성、균일성적자료서렬진행추세분석득출，엄주중심성구천하1914―2013년적지표년평균기온상승솔위1.75℃/100 a，고우동일시단전구지표년평균기온상승솔（0.72℃/100 a），원인여20세기80년대말출현열도현상급쾌속성시화유관。
The meteorological observation of Guangzhou (station No:59287) began at Guangdong Customs Observatory in 1908, the address of which was previously unkown. Since then the meteorological observatory of Guangzhou has moved for six times. Through the comparative analysis, predecessors considered that there was 0.9℃difference on the annual mean surface air temperature among different meteorological observatories due to the reasons of terrain and environment (for example, Tianhe observatory and Wushan observatory in 1996). The variation rate of annual mean surface air temperature in Guangzhou was 0.35℃/100 y from 1908 to 2008 based on inhomogeneity of surface air temperature series. According to the practical data, firstly, this paper found that the exact geographical position of Guangdong Customs Meteorological Observatory was 23°06′N, 113°05′E by investigating and verifying the buildings, comparing maps in different periods and visiting the masses, and correcting the error positioning of 23°06′N, 113°18′E in the references. Secondly, it concluded that the annual mean surface air temperature of the Customs Observatory was 0.392℃ higher than that of Tianhe observatory through comparative analysis, regression analysis, contrasting analysis, difference revisal, and confidence test on the annual mean surface air temperature. Thirdly, it considered that the annual mean surface air temperature of Tianhe observatory could be replaced by that of Panyu observatory after 1998 to research the trend of climate change according to comparative analysis on synchronous data from 1960 to 1997 (Figure 3). Through a trend analysis of these continuous, representative, homogeneity annual mean surface air temperature serie, this paper concluded that the rise rate of annual air temperature in Tianhe was 1.75℃/a. This rate (recorded from 1914-2013) was higher than that of Global annual mean surface air temperature (0.72℃/a) during the same period because of urban heat island effect derived from rapid urbanization of Guangzhou.