CAJ | 학술논문

利用普洱CIND3830-CC天气雷达资料、地面观测资料进行统计分析，研究2004—2013年普洱C 波段天气雷达中27次三体散射长钉（TBSS）的统计特征、地面降雹与TBSS的对应关系，并对TBSS在冰雹预警方面的应用进行探讨，结果表明：（1）C波段雷达中，产生TBSS的回波的反射率因子范围为55．0～68．4 dBz ，70％的TBSS出现在反射率因子≥60 dBz 时。（2）TBSS的维持时间为10～79 min，63％的TBSS 维持时间超过20 min。（3）TBSS 一般出现在4．0～9．5 km，最低出现在2．6 km，最高出现在11．4 km。（4）TBSS长5．6～22．4 km，宽1．5～14．6 km，TBSS宽度与强回波区径向外侧的60 dBz 以上回波的面积成正比，但TBSS的长度与反射率因子核心的强度和宽度无明显对应关系。（5）出现TBSS时，59％的回波出现了降雹，11％的回波出现了强冰雹。（6）出现TBSS且出现降雹的过程中，TBSS 预报冰雹的时间提前量为5～100 min，平均为34．5 min。（7）在出现TBSS且出现降雹的过程中，TBSS 的宽度与冰雹的大小或降雹密度成正比。此外，分析了出现TBSS但未降雹的原因，找出了TBSS配合垂直液态水含量密度（DVIL ）和45 dBz 伸展高度、TBSS 配合回波宽度和45 dBz 伸展高度的预报冰雹的方法，在出现TBSS特征的回波中，上述方法的预报准确率分别达89％和94％（临界成功指数为0．89和0．94）。
이용보이CIND3830-CC천기뢰체자료、지면관측자료진행통계분석，연구2004—2013년보이C 파단천기뢰체중27차삼체산사장정（TBSS）적통계특정、지면강박여TBSS적대응관계，병대TBSS재빙박예경방면적응용진행탐토，결과표명：（1）C파단뢰체중，산생TBSS적회파적반사솔인자범위위55．0～68．4 dBz ，70％적TBSS출현재반사솔인자≥60 dBz 시。（2）TBSS적유지시간위10～79 min，63％적TBSS 유지시간초과20 min。（3）TBSS 일반출현재4．0～9．5 km，최저출현재2．6 km，최고출현재11．4 km。（4）TBSS장5．6～22．4 km，관1．5～14．6 km，TBSS관도여강회파구경향외측적60 dBz 이상회파적면적성정비，단TBSS적장도여반사솔인자핵심적강도화관도무명현대응관계。（5）출현TBSS시，59％적회파출현료강박，11％적회파출현료강빙박。（6）출현TBSS차출현강박적과정중，TBSS 예보빙박적시간제전량위5～100 min，평균위34．5 min。（7）재출현TBSS차출현강박적과정중，TBSS 적관도여빙박적대소혹강박밀도성정비。차외，분석료출현TBSS단미강박적원인，조출료TBSS배합수직액태수함량밀도（DVIL ）화45 dBz 신전고도、TBSS 배합회파관도화45 dBz 신전고도적예보빙박적방법，재출현TBSS특정적회파중，상술방법적예보준학솔분별체89％화94％（림계성공지수위0．89화0．94）。
Based on the CIND3830-CC weather radar data and surface observational data in Puer City,this study reports the statistical characteristics of 27 times of three-body scatter Spike (TBSS)in C-band weather radar from 2004-2013,the corresponding relation between hails shooting on the ground and TB-SS as well as the application of TBSS in hailstorm warning.The results are as follows:(1 )The reflectivity range of TBSS echo is 55.0-68.4 dBz,and 70% TBSS appears when reflectivity factor is ≥ 60 dBz.(2) TBSS maintaining time is 10-79 min,and 63% is above 20 min.(3)TBSS usually happens in the height of 4.0-9.5 km,and the minimum/maximum height is 2.6 km/11.4 km.(4)TBSS is 5.6-22.4 km in length,and 1.5-14.6 km in width.The width of TBSS is proportional to the area of echo (at least 60 dBz)along the radially lateral direction,but the length does not have clear correspondence with the reflec-tivity factor.(5)Hailstorm weather happens in the case of 59% echoes with the occurrence of TBSS.The severe hail appears in 11%of the radar echo.(6)Hailstorm forecasting time by TBSS is 5-100 min in ad-vance,34.5 min on average when TBSS and hailstorm appear together.(7)When TBSS and hailstorm both happen,the width of TBSS is proportional to the size or density of hailstorm.Furthermore,the rea-son that TBSS appears but hailstorm does not come down simultaneously is discussed,and the forecasting hailstorm methods,with the accuracy of 89% and 94% respectively,are also found out by using TBSS combining DVIL and 45 dBz strong echo height or TBSS combining echo breadth and 45 dBz strong echo height (Critical Success Index are 0.89 and 0.94).