CAJ | 학술논문

利用常规探空、秒级原始探空、GPS／MET、微波辐射计、GFS再分析资料以及区域中尺度 WRF模式的预报场资料计算整层可降水量，对多种资料计算的整层可降水量进行误差特征和原因分析，结果表明：秒级探空和常规探空计算的整层可降水量基本一致。GPS／MET、微波辐射计、GFS 以及 WRF 计算的整层可降水量与常规（秒级）探空的相关系数分别为0．94、0．92、0．93、0．80，有降水时 GPS／MET 和微波辐射计与常规探空的相关系数分别下降到0．85和0．81，但有降水时GPS／MET误差分布较集中，而有降水时微波辐射计误差显著增大，主要由于1～2 km 处水汽密度误差异常增大。除微波辐射计和GFS宜昌站计算的整层可降水量为相对常规探空偏高，其他资料均为偏低，GPS／MET宜昌和恩施站平均偏低3 mm， GFS武汉和恩施站分别偏低1和7 mm，WRF恩施平均偏低2 mm，WRF武汉和宜昌平均偏低6～8 mm。GFS恩施站可降水量偏低是由于GFS资料中恩施地面气压比实际偏低，但其露点温度整层均比常规探空偏高。除 GFS 恩施站外，GFS 武汉、GFS宜昌和WRF 3站的露点温度相对常规探空资料露点温度均表现为：850 hPa以下偏低，850 hPa以上偏高。WRF 12 h预报场的整层可降水量与常规探空整层可降水量的相关性和误差均优于24 h预报场。
이용상규탐공、초급원시탐공、GPS／MET、미파복사계、GFS재분석자료이급구역중척도 WRF모식적예보장자료계산정층가강수량，대다충자료계산적정층가강수량진행오차특정화원인분석，결과표명：초급탐공화상규탐공계산적정층가강수량기본일치。GPS／MET、미파복사계、GFS 이급 WRF 계산적정층가강수량여상규（초급）탐공적상관계수분별위0．94、0．92、0．93、0．80，유강수시 GPS／MET 화미파복사계여상규탐공적상관계수분별하강도0．85화0．81，단유강수시GPS／MET오차분포교집중，이유강수시미파복사계오차현저증대，주요유우1～2 km 처수기밀도오차이상증대。제미파복사계화GFS의창참계산적정층가강수량위상대상규탐공편고，기타자료균위편저，GPS／MET의창화은시참평균편저3 mm， GFS무한화은시참분별편저1화7 mm，WRF은시평균편저2 mm，WRF무한화의창평균편저6～8 mm。GFS은시참가강수량편저시유우GFS자료중은시지면기압비실제편저，단기로점온도정층균비상규탐공편고。제 GFS 은시참외，GFS 무한、GFS의창화WRF 3참적로점온도상대상규탐공자료로점온도균표현위：850 hPa이하편저，850 hPa이상편고。WRF 12 h예보장적정층가강수량여상규탐공정층가강수량적상관성화오차균우우24 h예보장。
Using the sounding observation data (SO),raw sounding observation data (RSO),GPS/MET data,microwave radiometer data (MWR),GFS reanalyzed data and the mesoscale area-limited model WRF data,the precipitable water vapor (PWV)was estimated.Through the error analysis of different data,it is found that the SO PWV and RSO PWV are the same basically.The correlation coefficient of the GPS/MET PWV,the MWR PWV,the GPS PWV,the WRF PWV and the SO PWV are 0.94,0.92,0.93, 0.80,respectively.The correlation coefficients of the GPS/MET PWV,the MWR PWV and the SO PWV reduce to 0.85 and 0.81 seperately when raining,and the error distribution of the GPS/MET PWV is con-centrated,while the error distribution of the MWR PWV increases significantly,because the water vapor density error increases abnormally in the part 1-2 km.The PWV is generally low,except for the MWR PWV and the GPS/MET PWV at Yichang.The GPS/MET PWV is averagely 3 mm lower than the SO PWV at Yichang and Enshi,the GFS PWV at Wuhan and Enshi is respectively 1 mm and 7 mm,the WRF PWV at Enshi is averagely 2 mm and 6-8 mm at Wuhan and Yichang.The surface pressure of GFS is lower than the observation at Enshi is the reason for the GFS PWV errors,but the dew-point temperature of GFS is higher than SO.The dew-point temperature analysis shows that the GFS at Wuhan,the GFS at Yichang,and WRF at three stations are lower below 850 hPa and higher above 850 hPa than SO,except for the GFS at Enshi.The correlation coefficient and the error distribution of the WRF PWV and the SO PWV analysis show that the 12 h forecasting is better than 24 h.