舰船电子工程
艦船電子工程
함선전자공정
SHIP ELECTRONIC ENGINEERING
2014年
11期
124-127
,共4页
远洋船舶货运总量%灰色模型%Markov预测模型
遠洋船舶貨運總量%灰色模型%Markov預測模型
원양선박화운총량%회색모형%Markov예측모형
total freight of the ocean shipments%grey model%Markov prediction model
对我国远洋船舶货运总量的预测关系到我国港口建设和航运发展的一系列科学规划，也关系到远洋运输在综合交通运输中的比重和国际海上运输的资源分配。单纯的灰色模型对明显单调的序列往往预测得较好，而对波动的序列则会出现精度不够理想的问题。在结合改进后的灰色预测模型和M arkov模型的理论优势后，先用改进后的灰色模型来预测远洋船舶货运总量的总体走势，再用M arkov模型来确定各种状态间的转移方式，以此提高对波动序列的预测精度，具有较高的实用价值。
對我國遠洋船舶貨運總量的預測關繫到我國港口建設和航運髮展的一繫列科學規劃，也關繫到遠洋運輸在綜閤交通運輸中的比重和國際海上運輸的資源分配。單純的灰色模型對明顯單調的序列往往預測得較好，而對波動的序列則會齣現精度不夠理想的問題。在結閤改進後的灰色預測模型和M arkov模型的理論優勢後，先用改進後的灰色模型來預測遠洋船舶貨運總量的總體走勢，再用M arkov模型來確定各種狀態間的轉移方式，以此提高對波動序列的預測精度，具有較高的實用價值。
대아국원양선박화운총량적예측관계도아국항구건설화항운발전적일계렬과학규화，야관계도원양운수재종합교통운수중적비중화국제해상운수적자원분배。단순적회색모형대명현단조적서렬왕왕예측득교호，이대파동적서렬칙회출현정도불구이상적문제。재결합개진후적회색예측모형화M arkov모형적이론우세후，선용개진후적회색모형래예측원양선박화운총량적총체주세，재용M arkov모형래학정각충상태간적전이방식，이차제고대파동서렬적예측정도，구유교고적실용개치。
The forecast of the total freight of Chinese ocean shipments relates not only to a series of scientific project of national port construction and shipping development ,but also to the proportion of ocean shipping in integrated transport as well as the resource allocation of international maritime transport .The simple use of grey model always predicts well for ob‐vious monotonous sequence ,but for volatility sequences ,the problem of unsatisfactory accuracy occurs .Combining the ad‐vanced grey prediction model and the theoretical advantage of Markov model ,this article firstly shows the prediction of over‐all trend of the Chinese ocean shipments with the improved grey model ,then depicts the way of transfer between the various states ,so as to improve the prediction accuracy of volatility sequences ,and is of great practical value .
