CAJ | 학술논문

介绍了指数平滑法和Croston法，分析了指数平滑法和两步法的工作原理，结合备件需求预测问题，通过对指数平滑法和两步法方差的分析，得到两步法比指数平滑法具有更好的鲁棒性。为进一步研究两步法提供一定的理论基础。
개소료지수평활법화Croston법，분석료지수평활법화량보법적공작원리，결합비건수구예측문제，통과대지수평활법화량보법방차적분석，득도량보법비지수평활법구유경호적로봉성。위진일보연구량보법제공일정적이론기출。
Exponential smoothing method and Croston method are introduced ,the principle of exponential smoothing method and Croston method are analyzed .Combined with the problem of demand forecasting of spare parts ,through the contract of variance between exponential smoothing method and two‐step method ,we can get a conclusion:two‐step method has a better robustness than exponential smoothing method ,and provide a theoretical basis for further study for two‐step method .