CAJ | 학술논문

本文利用VEC模型，分析了房地产价格、CPI与居民消费需求增长的长期均衡关系及格兰杰因果关系，并利用脉冲响应函数，深入分析了房地产价格对居民消费需求及CPI的影响机理。得出如下结论：房地产价格上涨的财富效应大于替代效应、房地产价格与物价水平存在相互促进的关系、房价上升对物价水平产生的影响先负后正、物价上涨不利于扩大居民消费需求、居民消费需求的增长对物价水平的上升无明显影响等结论。最后，根据分析结果，简要提出了相关政策建议。
본문이용VEC모형，분석료방지산개격、CPI여거민소비수구증장적장기균형관계급격란걸인과관계，병이용맥충향응함수，심입분석료방지산개격대거민소비수구급CPI적영향궤리。득출여하결론：방지산개격상창적재부효응대우체대효응、방지산개격여물개수평존재상호촉진적관계、방개상승대물개수평산생적영향선부후정、물개상창불리우확대거민소비수구、거민소비수구적증장대물개수평적상승무명현영향등결론。최후，근거분석결과，간요제출료상관정책건의。
The paper analyzes the long-run equilibrium relationship among the real estate price, CPI and the growth of consumer demand and Granger causality by using VEC model, deeply studies the influential mechanism of the real estate prices on the con-sumer demand and CPI by means of impulse response function. The conclusions are that the wealth effect of the real estate prices is bigger than the substitution effect, the real estate price and CPI promote each other, the influences of the rise of the real estate price on CPI are negative first and then become positive., the rise of CPI is not conducive to the expansion of consumer demand, and con-sumer demand growth has no significant effect on the rise of CPI . Finally, according to the analysis results, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions.