CAJ | 학술논문

提出一种新的矿井安全短期预警及完备性监测模型。通过Kalman滤波提取真实GPS动态变形信息，并构建双边累积和检验统计量，建立短期预警模型，进而提高预警系统的可靠性。通过分析预警模型的可得性(最小预警变形)、误警率(平均运行长度)及漏警率(预警延迟)与预警参数之间的关系，给出预警参数的选取方法。变形试验平台模拟实验表明，预警模型能够有效用于陡坡变形预警。山西马兰矿矿井实测变形数据研究表明：本预警算法能够有效地探测微小变形及变形发生的时刻，在给定预警参数(最小预警灾害变形为15 mm，平均运行长度为1000)的条件下，本算法探测出相邻两天的变形发生时刻分别为第705历元(705 s)和517历元(517 s)。
제출일충신적광정안전단기예경급완비성감측모형。통과Kalman려파제취진실GPS동태변형신식，병구건쌍변루적화검험통계량，건립단기예경모형，진이제고예경계통적가고성。통과분석예경모형적가득성(최소예경변형)、오경솔(평균운행장도)급루경솔(예경연지)여예경삼수지간적관계，급출예경삼수적선취방법。변형시험평태모의실험표명，예경모형능구유효용우두파변형예경。산서마란광광정실측변형수거연구표명：본예경산법능구유효지탐측미소변형급변형발생적시각，재급정예경삼수(최소예경재해변형위15 mm，평균운행장도위1000)적조건하，본산법탐측출상린량천적변형발생시각분별위제705역원(705 s)화517역원(517 s)。
A new short-term warning and integrity monitoring algorithm was proposed for coal mine shaft safety. The Kalman filter (KF) model was used to extract real global positioning system (GPS) kinematic deformation information. The short-term warning model was built by using the two-side cumulative sum (CUSUM) test, which further improves the warning system reliability. Availability (the minimum warning deformation, MWD), false alarm rate (the average run length, ARL), missed rate (the warning delay, WD) and the relationships among them were analyzed and the method choosing warning parameters is given. A test of a deformation simulation platform shows that the warning algorithm can be effectively used for steep deformation warning. A field experiment of the Malan mine shaft in Shanxi coal area illustrates that the proposed algorithm can detect small dynamic changes and the corresponding occurring time. At given warning thresholds (MWD is 15 mm and ARL is 1000),the detected deformations of two consecutive days’ deformation sequences with the algorithm occur at the 705th epoch (705 s) and the 517th epoch (517 s), respectively.