中华耳鼻咽喉头颈外科杂志
中華耳鼻嚥喉頭頸外科雜誌
중화이비인후두경외과잡지
CHINESE JOURNAL OF OTORHINOLARYNGOLOGY HEAD AND NECK SURGERY
2013年
7期
539-543
,共5页
欧阳昱晖%丁谊%李津%张德山%张罗
歐暘昱暉%丁誼%李津%張德山%張囉
구양욱휘%정의%리진%장덕산%장라
鼻炎,变应性,季节性%鼻炎,变应性,常年性%气象因素%概率%一级预防
鼻炎,變應性,季節性%鼻炎,變應性,常年性%氣象因素%概率%一級預防
비염,변응성,계절성%비염,변응성,상년성%기상인소%개솔%일급예방
Rhinitis,allergic,seasonal%Rhinitis,allergic perennial%Meteorological factors%Probability%Primary prevention
目的 通过分析气象要素与变应性鼻炎(allergic rhinitis,AR)患者发病时间的相关性,建立AR发病情况的预报方法.方法 根据首都医科大学附属北京同仁医院2007-2010年AR患者的临床检查结果和北京市专业气象台的气象要素资料,研究AR患者平均发病时间与同期气象要素的相关关系.通过分析AR患者发病时间的概率分布,确立AR发病趋势的指数等级.采用SPSS16.0统计软件进行数据分析.结果 各类变应原敏感的AR患者发病的高峰主要集中在8月中下旬.AR患者发病时间与平均气温和水汽压等气象要素有明显相关性(r=0.7473,F=206.13；r=0.8465,F=321.04,P值均＜0.001),气温和水汽压的年高峰早于AR患者发病高峰1个月.根据以上相关性可以建立AR发病趋势非线性预报方程；应用概率分级方法,将AR发病趋势指数划分4个等级,指数等级越高,发病人数越多.结论 根据气象要素分等级预报AR患者发病趋势的方法,对于AR的诊断和预防有重要的参考价值.
目的 通過分析氣象要素與變應性鼻炎(allergic rhinitis,AR)患者髮病時間的相關性,建立AR髮病情況的預報方法.方法 根據首都醫科大學附屬北京同仁醫院2007-2010年AR患者的臨床檢查結果和北京市專業氣象檯的氣象要素資料,研究AR患者平均髮病時間與同期氣象要素的相關關繫.通過分析AR患者髮病時間的概率分佈,確立AR髮病趨勢的指數等級.採用SPSS16.0統計軟件進行數據分析.結果 各類變應原敏感的AR患者髮病的高峰主要集中在8月中下旬.AR患者髮病時間與平均氣溫和水汽壓等氣象要素有明顯相關性(r=0.7473,F=206.13；r=0.8465,F=321.04,P值均＜0.001),氣溫和水汽壓的年高峰早于AR患者髮病高峰1箇月.根據以上相關性可以建立AR髮病趨勢非線性預報方程；應用概率分級方法,將AR髮病趨勢指數劃分4箇等級,指數等級越高,髮病人數越多.結論 根據氣象要素分等級預報AR患者髮病趨勢的方法,對于AR的診斷和預防有重要的參攷價值.
목적 통과분석기상요소여변응성비염(allergic rhinitis,AR)환자발병시간적상관성,건립AR발병정황적예보방법.방법 근거수도의과대학부속북경동인의원2007-2010년AR환자적림상검사결과화북경시전업기상태적기상요소자료,연구AR환자평균발병시간여동기기상요소적상관관계.통과분석AR환자발병시간적개솔분포,학립AR발병추세적지수등급.채용SPSS16.0통계연건진행수거분석.결과 각류변응원민감적AR환자발병적고봉주요집중재8월중하순.AR환자발병시간여평균기온화수기압등기상요소유명현상관성(r=0.7473,F=206.13；r=0.8465,F=321.04,P치균＜0.001),기온화수기압적년고봉조우AR환자발병고봉1개월.근거이상상관성가이건립AR발병추세비선성예보방정；응용개솔분급방법,장AR발병추세지수화분4개등급,지수등급월고,발병인수월다.결론 근거기상요소분등급예보AR환자발병추세적방법,대우AR적진단화예방유중요적삼고개치.
Objective To analyze the correlation between meteorological factors and onset of allergic rhinitis (AR),and to establish the prediction of AR epideminlogical trend.Methods According to skin prick test (SPT) data of AR from Beijing Tongren Hospital and meteorological data of Beijing Observatory (2007-2010),analyzed the relationship between meteorological factors and onset in patients with AR.To analyze the probability distribution of onset in AR patients,and establish the grade of AR epideminlogical trend index.SPSS 16.0 software was used to analyze the data.Results The peak of onset in patients with AR appeared in 15-30 th August.There was significant correlation between the onset of AR patients and air temperature and vapor pressure (r =0.7473,F =206.13 ; r =0.8465,F =321.04 ; all P ＜ 0.001),and the peak of air temperature and vapor pressure were one month earlier than the peak of onset AR patients in 4 years.According to the above correlation,nonlinear prediction models of AR were established; used probability grading method,onset index of AR was divided into 4 grades.Conclusion Index grade forecast of AR onset has important guiding significance for AR diagnosis and prophylaxis,offers objective reference information for health departments.
