中华劳动卫生职业病杂志
中華勞動衛生職業病雜誌
중화노동위생직업병잡지
CHINESE JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL HYGIENE AND OCCUPATIONAL DISEASES
2012年
12期
902-907
,共6页
王德征%顾清%江国虹%杨德一%张辉%宋桂德%张颖
王德徵%顧清%江國虹%楊德一%張輝%宋桂德%張穎
왕덕정%고청%강국홍%양덕일%장휘%송계덕%장영
泊松回归广义可加模型%空气污染%死亡率
泊鬆迴歸廣義可加模型%空氣汙染%死亡率
박송회귀엄의가가모형%공기오염%사망솔
Generalized additive Poisson regression model%Air pollution%Mortality
目的 探讨天津市大气污染对居民脑卒中死亡率的影响,为脑卒中的预防控制提供依据.方法 采用天津市疾病预防控制中心收集的居民全死因监测数据,气象资料和大气污染资料来源于天津市气象局和天津市环境监测中心.采用时间序列的泊松回归广义可加模型进行天津市每日大气污染与居民脑卒中死亡危险度分析,同时控制气象因素、长期趋势、星期几效应以及人口数等混杂因素的影响,进行单污染物和多污染物分析.结果 2001至2009年天津市脑卒中粗死亡率为136.67～160.01/10万,有逐年上升趋势(P=0.000),但天津市脑卒中世界标化死亡率为138.36～99.14/10万,呈逐年下降趋势(P=0.000)；大气中SO2、NO2、PM10日均浓度每升高10μg/m3,脑卒中死亡的风险RR值分别为1.0105(95％CI:1.0060～1.0153),1.0197(95％CI:1.0149～1.0246)和1.0064(95％CI:1.0052～1.0077).SO2效应在1日后达到最大,NO2、PM10效应在当日达到最大.结论 天津市大气污染能增加人群脑卒中死亡风险,可能对脑卒中急性发作起到诱导作用.
目的 探討天津市大氣汙染對居民腦卒中死亡率的影響,為腦卒中的預防控製提供依據.方法 採用天津市疾病預防控製中心收集的居民全死因鑑測數據,氣象資料和大氣汙染資料來源于天津市氣象跼和天津市環境鑑測中心.採用時間序列的泊鬆迴歸廣義可加模型進行天津市每日大氣汙染與居民腦卒中死亡危險度分析,同時控製氣象因素、長期趨勢、星期幾效應以及人口數等混雜因素的影響,進行單汙染物和多汙染物分析.結果 2001至2009年天津市腦卒中粗死亡率為136.67～160.01/10萬,有逐年上升趨勢(P=0.000),但天津市腦卒中世界標化死亡率為138.36～99.14/10萬,呈逐年下降趨勢(P=0.000)；大氣中SO2、NO2、PM10日均濃度每升高10μg/m3,腦卒中死亡的風險RR值分彆為1.0105(95％CI:1.0060～1.0153),1.0197(95％CI:1.0149～1.0246)和1.0064(95％CI:1.0052～1.0077).SO2效應在1日後達到最大,NO2、PM10效應在噹日達到最大.結論 天津市大氣汙染能增加人群腦卒中死亡風險,可能對腦卒中急性髮作起到誘導作用.
목적 탐토천진시대기오염대거민뇌졸중사망솔적영향,위뇌졸중적예방공제제공의거.방법 채용천진시질병예방공제중심수집적거민전사인감측수거,기상자료화대기오염자료래원우천진시기상국화천진시배경감측중심.채용시간서렬적박송회귀엄의가가모형진행천진시매일대기오염여거민뇌졸중사망위험도분석,동시공제기상인소、장기추세、성기궤효응이급인구수등혼잡인소적영향,진행단오염물화다오염물분석.결과 2001지2009년천진시뇌졸중조사망솔위136.67～160.01/10만,유축년상승추세(P=0.000),단천진시뇌졸중세계표화사망솔위138.36～99.14/10만,정축년하강추세(P=0.000)；대기중SO2、NO2、PM10일균농도매승고10μg/m3,뇌졸중사망적풍험RR치분별위1.0105(95％CI:1.0060～1.0153),1.0197(95％CI:1.0149～1.0246)화1.0064(95％CI:1.0052～1.0077).SO2효응재1일후체도최대,NO2、PM10효응재당일체도최대.결론 천진시대기오염능증가인군뇌졸중사망풍험,가능대뇌졸중급성발작기도유도작용.
Objective To investigate the effect of air pollution on stroke mortality in Tianjin,China,and to provide a basis for stroke control and prevention.Methods Total data of mortality surveillance were collected by Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.Meteorological data and atmospheric pollution data were from Tianjin Meteorological Bureau and Tianjin Environmental Monitoring Center,respectively.Generalized additive Poisson regression model was used in time-series analysis on the relationship between air pollution and stroke mortality in Tianjin.Single-pollutant analysis and multi-pollutant analysis were performed after adjustment for confounding factors such as meteorological factors,long-term trend of death,"days of the week"effect and population.Results The crude death rates of stroke in Tianjin were from 136.67 in 2001 to 160.01/100000 in 2009,with an escalating trend (P=0.000),while the standardized mortality ratios of stroke in Tianjin were from 138.36 to 99.14/100000,with a declining trend (P=0.000).An increase of 10 μg/m3 in daily average concentrations of atmospheric SO2,NO2 and PM10 led to 1.0105 (95％CI:1.0060～1.0153),1.0197 (95％CI:1.0149～1.0246) and 1.0064 (95％CI:1.0052～1.0077),respectively,in relative risks of stroke mortality.SO2 effect peaked after 1-day exposure,while NO2 and PM10 effects did within 1 day.Conclusion Air pollution in Tianjin may increase the risk of stroke mortality in the population and induce acute onset of stroke.It is necessary to carry out air pollution control and allocate health resources rationally to reduce the hazard of stroke mortality.
