CAJ | 학술논문

目的对达乌尔黄鼠疫源地动物鼠疫流行情况进行风险分级.方法对内蒙古达乌尔黄鼠疫源地动物鼠疫流行总体数据7个监测指标(鼠密度、鼠体染蚤率、鼠体蚤指数、巢穴蚤染蚤率、巢穴蚤指数、洞干蚤染蚤率、洞干蚤指数)利用Matlab软件中最优回归子集法进行风险分级,采用指数平滑法预测2012年动物鼠疫流行的风险.按照检出鼠疫菌为流行(y=1),未检出菌视为不流行(y=0),将风险分为流行、高风险及不流行3级,若预报值y＞2/3,预报为流行;若预报值y＜1/3,预报为不流行;若1/3≤y≤2/3,预报为高风险.结果对风险分级采用实际数据进行拟合,当y＞2/3时预报流行的拟合率均为100％;回归模型的回归因子≥4个时,y＜1/3时预报流行的拟合率均为100％;1/3≤y≤2/3时预报流行的拟合率约为50％.结论风险分级预测结果表明2012年达乌尔黄鼠疫源地不会发生动物鼠疫流行,预测结果与实际情况相符(当年实际并未检出鼠疫菌).
목적 대체오이황서역원지동물서역류행정황진행풍험분급.방법 대내몽고체오이황서역원지동물서역류행총체수거7개감측지표(서밀도、서체염조솔、서체조지수、소혈조염조솔、소혈조지수、동간조염조솔、동간조지수)이용Matlab연건중최우회귀자집법진행풍험분급,채용지수평활법예측2012년동물서역류행적풍험.안조검출서역균위류행(y=1),미검출균시위불류행(y=0),장풍험분위류행、고풍험급불류행3급,약예보치y＞2/3,예보위류행;약예보치y＜1/3,예보위불류행;약1/3≤y≤2/3,예보위고풍험.결과 대풍험분급채용실제수거진행의합,당y＞2/3시예보류행적의합솔균위100％;회귀모형적회귀인자≥4개시,y＜1/3시예보류행적의합솔균위100％;1/3≤y≤2/3시예보류행적의합솔약위50％.결론 풍험분급예측결과표명2012년체오이황서역원지불회발생동물서역류행,예측결과여실제정황상부(당년실제병미검출서역균).
Objective To study the risk classification of animal plague in Spermophilus Dauricus Focus,using the Best Subsets Regression (BSR) model.Methods Matlab,BSR and exponential smoothing were employed to develop and evaluate a model for risk classification as well as to forecast plague epidemics at the Spermophilus Dauricus Focus.Data was based upon the Inner Mongolia surveillance programs.This model involved 7 risk factors,including density of Spermophilus dauricus,percentage of hosts infested,host flea index,percentage of nests infested,nest flea index,percentage of runways infested,and runway flea index.Results Forecasting values of the classification model (CM) were calculated and grouped into 3 risk levels.Values that over 2/3 of the CM would indicate the existence of potential epidemics while those below 1/3 would indicate that there were no risk for epidemics but when values that were in between would indicate that there exist for high risk.Annually,during the observation period in the Inner Mongolia Spermophilus Dauricus Foci,the detection of Yersinia pestis gave a risk rating value of 1 which stood for existing epidemics,while nil detection rate generated a ‘zero’ value which representing the situation of non-epidemic.The overall plague epidemics forecasting surveillance programs in 2012 at the Spermophilus Dauricus Foci indicated that no active plague was obsered.When the forecasting values became over 2/3,combinations of all the risk factors would achieve the consistency rates of 100％.When the forecasting values were below 1/3,combinations of at least the first 4 factors could also achieve the consistency rates of 100％.However,when the forecasting values fell in between,combinations of at least the first 4 factors would achieve the consistency rates of around 50％.Conclusion Results from our study showed that plague would not be active to become epidemic,in 2012.