CAJ | 학술논문

目的探讨捕获-再捕获方法不同标记物对估计MSM规模的影响.方法 2013年3-7月应用捕获-再捕获法,间隔半个月,分别从网络和现场调查前后2次捕获MSM,第一次网络捕获时设置了2种不同的标记物,采用Chapman等提出的无偏估计公式估计北京地区MSM人群规模.结果使用第一种标记物估计的北京地区MSM规模为239 258人(95％CI:48 932～429 584).使用第二种标记物估计的北京地区MSM规模为115 731人(95％CI:78 153～ 153 309).结论标记物不同,估计的北京地区MSM人群规模相差很大,使用捕获-再捕获原理进行特定人群规模估计时应慎重选择标记物.
목적 탐토포획-재포획방법불동표기물대고계MSM규모적영향.방법 2013년3-7월응용포획-재포획법,간격반개월,분별종망락화현장조사전후2차포획MSM,제일차망락포획시설치료2충불동적표기물,채용Chapman등제출적무편고계공식고계북경지구MSM인군규모.결과 사용제일충표기물고계적북경지구MSM규모위239 258인(95％CI:48 932～429 584).사용제이충표기물고계적북경지구MSM규모위115 731인(95％CI:78 153～ 153 309).결론 표기물불동,고계적북경지구MSM인군규모상차흔대,사용포획-재포획원리진행특정인군규모고계시응신중선택표기물.
Objective To discuss the impact of different markers on the estimation of MSM using the capture-recapture method.Methods From March to July 2013,MSM were captured from the their related network to estimate the site of this population,under the capture-recapture method.Two different markers were set in the process of first ‘capture'.Results The estimated numbers of MSM in Beijing were 239 258 (95％CI:48 932-429 584) and 115 731 (95％CI:78 153-153 309) when using the two markers under capture-recapture method.Conclusion The estimated size of MSM population varied greatly under different markers which called for the right selection on markers when using the capture-recapture method to estimate the size of specific population.