中华普通外科杂志
中華普通外科雜誌
중화보통외과잡지
CHINESE JOURNAL OF GENERAL SURGERY
2013年
1期
16-19
,共4页
张春%傅卫%任立涣%王亮%李磊%袁炯%王德臣%张同琳
張春%傅衛%任立渙%王亮%李磊%袁炯%王德臣%張同琳
장춘%부위%임립환%왕량%리뢰%원형%왕덕신%장동림
结直肠肿瘤%死亡率%预测
結直腸腫瘤%死亡率%預測
결직장종류%사망솔%예측
Colorectal neoplasms%Mortality%Forecasting
目的 评价5种结直肠癌评分预测系统对中国结直肠癌患者术后病死率的预测能力.方法 回顾性研究904例结直肠癌手术病例,其中结肠癌525例,直肠癌379例.分别使用Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity(POSSUM)、Portsmouth POSSUM(P-POSSUM)、colorectal POSSUM (CR-POSSUM)、Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland (ACPGBI)、Cleveland Clinic Foundation Colorectal Cancer Model (CCF-CCM)5种评分系统,对结直肠癌患者术后30 d内病死率进行预测.将预测结果与实际情况进行比较,并比较各系统之间的预测能力.主要通过受试者工作特征曲线(receiver operator characteristic curve,ROC)判断各评分系统的判别能力.结果 各评分系统的ROC曲线下面积分别为POSSUM 0.882,P-POSSUM 0.885,CR-POSSUM 0.844,ACPGBI0.78,CCF-CCM 0.809. 结论 5种结直肠癌预测评分系统对于中国患者的预测高于实际情况.POSSUM,P-POSSUM,CR-POSSUM对中国结直肠癌术后患者30 d病死率的预测好于ACPGBI、CCF-CCM系统.
目的 評價5種結直腸癌評分預測繫統對中國結直腸癌患者術後病死率的預測能力.方法 迴顧性研究904例結直腸癌手術病例,其中結腸癌525例,直腸癌379例.分彆使用Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity(POSSUM)、Portsmouth POSSUM(P-POSSUM)、colorectal POSSUM (CR-POSSUM)、Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland (ACPGBI)、Cleveland Clinic Foundation Colorectal Cancer Model (CCF-CCM)5種評分繫統,對結直腸癌患者術後30 d內病死率進行預測.將預測結果與實際情況進行比較,併比較各繫統之間的預測能力.主要通過受試者工作特徵麯線(receiver operator characteristic curve,ROC)判斷各評分繫統的判彆能力.結果 各評分繫統的ROC麯線下麵積分彆為POSSUM 0.882,P-POSSUM 0.885,CR-POSSUM 0.844,ACPGBI0.78,CCF-CCM 0.809. 結論 5種結直腸癌預測評分繫統對于中國患者的預測高于實際情況.POSSUM,P-POSSUM,CR-POSSUM對中國結直腸癌術後患者30 d病死率的預測好于ACPGBI、CCF-CCM繫統.
목적 평개5충결직장암평분예측계통대중국결직장암환자술후병사솔적예측능력.방법 회고성연구904례결직장암수술병례,기중결장암525례,직장암379례.분별사용Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity(POSSUM)、Portsmouth POSSUM(P-POSSUM)、colorectal POSSUM (CR-POSSUM)、Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland (ACPGBI)、Cleveland Clinic Foundation Colorectal Cancer Model (CCF-CCM)5충평분계통,대결직장암환자술후30 d내병사솔진행예측.장예측결과여실제정황진행비교,병비교각계통지간적예측능력.주요통과수시자공작특정곡선(receiver operator characteristic curve,ROC)판단각평분계통적판별능력.결과 각평분계통적ROC곡선하면적분별위POSSUM 0.882,P-POSSUM 0.885,CR-POSSUM 0.844,ACPGBI0.78,CCF-CCM 0.809. 결론 5충결직장암예측평분계통대우중국환자적예측고우실제정황.POSSUM,P-POSSUM,CR-POSSUM대중국결직장암술후환자30 d병사솔적예측호우ACPGBI、CCF-CCM계통.
Objective To evaluate the predictive power of 5 colorectal cancer prediction systems in Chinese patients.Methods Retrospective study was made on 904 cases of colorectal cancer,including 525 colon cancers and 379 rectal cancer patients at author's hospital.To predict mortality within 30 days of patients with colorectal cancer,respectively used were the physiological and operative severity score for the enUmeration of mortality and morbidity (POSSUM),Portsmouth POSSUM (P-POSSUM),colorectal POSSUM (CR-POSSUM),Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland (ACPGBI),and Cleveland Clinic Foundation Colorectal Cancer Model (CCF-CCM).The predicted results were compared with the actual situation,and compare the predictive power between various systems,to determine the ability of the score with receiver operating characteristic curve (receiver operator characteristic curve,ROC).Results The scoring system of the area under the ROC curve for the POSSUM was 0.882,P-POSSUM 0.885,CR-POSSUM 0.844,ACPGBI 0.78 and CCF-CCM 0.809.Conclusions All the 5 scoring systems for mortality prediction in Chinese patients are higher than the actual.POSSUM,P-POSSUM,CR-POSSUM are better than ACPGBI and CCF-CCM.
