CAJ | 학술논문

目的研发呼吸道传染病潜伏期传播轨迹分析技术,探讨其在传染病现场调查处置中的应用价值.方法将经典的潜伏期分析理论与地理信息技术结合,以ArcGIS Engine Developer Kit 9.3为建模平台,融合地址匹配、最短路径分析和缓冲区分析等技术,使用Visual C++语言进行编程,构建潜伏期传播轨迹分析软件模型.以2003年上海市全部8例严重急性呼吸系统综合征(SARS)患者为原型,建立测试案例A～H,电子地图和人口密度数据分别来源于上海市测绘院和2003年上海市统计年鉴,使用单病例和多病例分析模块对测试病例传播轨迹长度,缓冲区面积和区域内重点单位等参数进行计算和探测.结果单病例潜伏期传播轨迹分析显示,病例A在2003年4月25-29 日期间的传播轨迹总长度为129.89 km,共涉及12个轨迹点和108名密切接触者,缓冲区总面积为7.11 km2,缓冲区内共有81个具有公共卫生意义的重点单位,分别为72所学校、6家托幼机构和3家敬老院.多病例潜伏期传播轨迹分析显示,8例患者共呈现5条潜伏期传播轨迹,彼此不存在潜伏期时间交集,但存在长度为1.42 km,面积为0.60 km2的空间交集,交集内未探测到重点单位.结论潜伏期传播轨迹分析技术对于追溯传染源、分析传播轨迹、设置隔离缓冲区和探测重点地理位置均具有辅助价值.
목적 연발호흡도전염병잠복기전파궤적분석기술,탐토기재전염병현장조사처치중적응용개치.방법 장경전적잠복기분석이론여지리신식기술결합,이ArcGIS Engine Developer Kit 9.3위건모평태,융합지지필배、최단로경분석화완충구분석등기술,사용Visual C++어언진행편정,구건잠복기전파궤적분석연건모형.이2003년상해시전부8례엄중급성호흡계통종합정(SARS)환자위원형,건립측시안례A～H,전자지도화인구밀도수거분별래원우상해시측회원화2003년상해시통계년감,사용단병례화다병례분석모괴대측시병례전파궤적장도,완충구면적화구역내중점단위등삼수진행계산화탐측.결과 단병례잠복기전파궤적분석현시,병례A재2003년4월25-29 일기간적전파궤적총장도위129.89 km,공섭급12개궤적점화108명밀절접촉자,완충구총면적위7.11 km2,완충구내공유81개구유공공위생의의적중점단위,분별위72소학교、6가탁유궤구화3가경로원.다병례잠복기전파궤적분석현시,8례환자공정현5조잠복기전파궤적,피차불존재잠복기시간교집,단존재장도위1.42 km,면적위0.60 km2적공간교집,교집내미탐측도중점단위.결론 잠복기전파궤적분석기술대우추소전염원、분석전파궤적、설치격리완충구화탐측중점지리위치균구유보조개치.
Objective To develop a new transmission tracking analysis technique during incubationperiod of respiratory infectious diseases,and to discuss its practical value in the field survey of infectiousdiseases.Methods The classical epidemiological theory was integrated with geographic informationsystem.The transmission tracking analysis technique was established based on the modeling platform ArcGISEngine Developer Kit 9.3,using the techniques of address matching,shortest path analysis and bufferanalysis,and programming bv Visual C ++.Eight serious sever acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) cases inShanghai in year 2003 were then chose as prototype to set up the test cases A-H.The electronic map andpopulation density data were separately collected from Institute of Surveying and Mapping in Shanghai andShanghai statistical yearbook 2003,to calculate and explore the parameters as length of transmission path,area of buffer zone and key departments by single and multi case analysis module.Results The single casetransmission tracking analysis showed that the length of transmission track of case A was 129.89 km duringApril 25th to 29th in 2003,including 12 tracing point and 108 intimate contacts,and the total area of bufferzone was 7.11 km2 including 81 important institutes,naming 72 schools,6 kindergartens and 3 gerocomiums.The multi-case transmission tracking analysis showed that the 8 cases shared 5 tracks without any temporalcommunication.However,there was a spatial communication whose length was 1.42 km and area wasO.60 km2-.There were no important institutes found in this communication area.Conclusion Transmissiontracking technique is practicable and efficient to trace the source of infection,analyze the transmission tracks,establish the isolation buffer area and explore the important geographic positions in epidemiological investigation.