CAJ | 학술논문

目的利用网络规模迭加法(NSUM)间接估计泰州市暗娟及嫖客人群规模.方法 2011年8月至10月间在泰州市的泰兴市、靖江市对社区居民开展问卷调查,共获得2783名有效调查问卷.利用NSUM估计社区区民的社交网络规模,并以2010年泰州市18～ 60岁性别、年龄、文化程度构成为标准对估计结果进行校正,应用校正后的社交网络规模及调查对象认识暗娼或嫖客的人数及尊重程度,估计泰州市暗娼和嫖客人群规模.结果在2783名调查对象中,泰兴市1380名(占49.6％),靖江市1403名(占50.4％)；男性1334名(占47.9％),女性1449名(占52.1％)；调查对象年龄为(39.4±10.7)岁.应用原始数据进行分析,估计出泰州市居民社交网络规模均值为525名.按照性别、年龄、文化程度进行校正后泰州市居民社交网络规模均值为478名；应用反向预测法保留的7个已知人群(20～ 24岁男性人群、20 ～24岁女性人群、70岁以上女性人群、在读高中生、2010年离婚者、2010年生育女性者、残疾人)估计泰州市居民的社交网络规模的均值为419名；利用箱式图剔除异常后估计泰州市居民社交网络规模的均值为424名.应用NSUM估计泰州市暗娼人群规模为6370(95％CI:5886 ～6853)名,占当地15 ～49岁女性人数的0.52％(6370/1 229 980)；嫖客人群规模为15 202(95％CI:14 560 ～ 15 847)名,占15 ～49岁男性人数的1.28％(15 202/1 190 340),嫖客与暗娼的规模比值为2.39∶1.结论应用NSUM可同时对暗娼及嫖客人群进行规模估计,操作简单、快捷,但估计结果会受到回忆偏倚、样本代表性等因素的影响.
목적 이용망락규모질가법(NSUM)간접고계태주시암연급표객인군규모.방법 2011년8월지10월간재태주시적태흥시、정강시대사구거민개전문권조사,공획득2783명유효조사문권.이용NSUM고계사구구민적사교망락규모,병이2010년태주시18～ 60세성별、년령、문화정도구성위표준대고계결과진행교정,응용교정후적사교망락규모급조사대상인식암창혹표객적인수급존중정도,고계태주시암창화표객인군규모.결과 재2783명조사대상중,태흥시1380명(점49.6％),정강시1403명(점50.4％)；남성1334명(점47.9％),녀성1449명(점52.1％)；조사대상년령위(39.4±10.7)세.응용원시수거진행분석,고계출태주시거민사교망락규모균치위525명.안조성별、년령、문화정도진행교정후태주시거민사교망락규모균치위478명；응용반향예측법보류적7개이지인군(20～ 24세남성인군、20 ～24세녀성인군、70세이상녀성인군、재독고중생、2010년리혼자、2010년생육녀성자、잔질인)고계태주시거민적사교망락규모적균치위419명；이용상식도척제이상후고계태주시거민사교망락규모적균치위424명.응용NSUM고계태주시암창인군규모위6370(95％CI:5886 ～6853)명,점당지15 ～49세녀성인수적0.52％(6370/1 229 980)；표객인군규모위15 202(95％CI:14 560 ～ 15 847)명,점15 ～49세남성인수적1.28％(15 202/1 190 340),표객여암창적규모비치위2.39∶1.결론 응용NSUM가동시대암창급표객인군진행규모고계,조작간단、쾌첩,단고계결과회수도회억편의、양본대표성등인소적영향.
Objective To estimate the size of female sex workers and clients in Taizhou city.Methods A household survey using network scale-up method (NSUM) was conducted among the 3000 community residents in Taizhou city from August to October in 2011,which aimed to estimate the social network size (c value) of Taizhou residents,and the c value was adjusted by demographic characteristics,back estimation and outlier elimination.Using the adjusted c value,the number of acquaintance of female sex workers or clients and the respect level toward female sex workers or clients were used to estimate the size of female sex workers and clients.Results A total of 2783 valid questionnaires were collected,among which 1380(49.6％) were collected from Taixing city,1403 (50.4％) were collected from Jingjiang city.1334 respondents were male(47.9％) and 1449(47.9％) respondents were female.The mean age was (39.4 ± 10.7) years.The average personal social network size using original data for Taizhou residents was 525,which differed from place,sex,age,educational level and marriage status.Using the remaining known populations through back estimation,the social network size was 419 and became 424 after the elimination of outliers.The estimated population size for female sex worker was 6370 (95％ CI:5886-6853),which accounted for 0.52％ (6370/1 229 980) of the total number of female aged from 15 to 49.The estimated population size for clients was 15 202 (95％ CI:14 560-15 847),which accounted for 1.28％ (15 202/1 190 340) of the total number of males aged from 15 to 49 and the ration of clients to female sex worker was 2.39:1.Conclusion NSUM is an easy and quick way to estimate the size of female sex workers or clients,but the estimated sizes are subject to bias and error due to estimate effect and sample representativeness.