中华预防医学杂志
中華預防醫學雜誌
중화예방의학잡지
CHINESE JOURNAL OF
2013年
6期
565-568
,共4页
张磊%刘爱东%刘兆平%杨大进
張磊%劉愛東%劉兆平%楊大進
장뢰%류애동%류조평%양대진
食品%膳食%模型,统计学%风险评估%化学物
食品%膳食%模型,統計學%風險評估%化學物
식품%선식%모형,통계학%풍험평고%화학물
Food%Diet%Models,statistical%Risk assessment%Chemicals
目的 建立食品中化学物的高端暴露膳食模型并进行验证.方法 基于人体仅可能同时有2～3种食物的消费量达到人群较高水平的假设,提出计算多种食物来源的食物化学物高端暴露量的膳食模型.采用2011年全国化学污染物和有害因素监测数据库中铅、镉、汞含量数据(样本量分别为45 832、43 862和25 243份)和2002年中国居民健康与营养状况调查中各类食物消费量数据,以半概率分布模型为参考,对模型的重要参数进行选择,并以2010年监测的8种化学污染物在各类食品中的含量数据进行验证.结果 在第90、95、97.5百分位数高端暴露水平下,当分别采用7、12、20、30种食物分类时,含有两个高暴露食物的模型(2+x模型)输出结果与半概率分布模型输出结果(参考值)的相对偏离度均＜0；含3个高暴露食物的模型(3+x模型)输出结果的相对偏离度均>0,但均在±20％之间.进一步对模型进行验证表明,8种不同化学污染物通过3+x模型得到的结果均接近和(或)高于半概率分布模型的结果,相对偏离度在-5％～ 25％之间.结论 3+x高端暴露模型可兼顾暴露评估模型对准确性和保守性的要求,能可靠地对多种食物来源的化学物的高端暴露量进行估计.
目的 建立食品中化學物的高耑暴露膳食模型併進行驗證.方法 基于人體僅可能同時有2～3種食物的消費量達到人群較高水平的假設,提齣計算多種食物來源的食物化學物高耑暴露量的膳食模型.採用2011年全國化學汙染物和有害因素鑑測數據庫中鉛、鎘、汞含量數據(樣本量分彆為45 832、43 862和25 243份)和2002年中國居民健康與營養狀況調查中各類食物消費量數據,以半概率分佈模型為參攷,對模型的重要參數進行選擇,併以2010年鑑測的8種化學汙染物在各類食品中的含量數據進行驗證.結果 在第90、95、97.5百分位數高耑暴露水平下,噹分彆採用7、12、20、30種食物分類時,含有兩箇高暴露食物的模型(2+x模型)輸齣結果與半概率分佈模型輸齣結果(參攷值)的相對偏離度均＜0；含3箇高暴露食物的模型(3+x模型)輸齣結果的相對偏離度均>0,但均在±20％之間.進一步對模型進行驗證錶明,8種不同化學汙染物通過3+x模型得到的結果均接近和(或)高于半概率分佈模型的結果,相對偏離度在-5％～ 25％之間.結論 3+x高耑暴露模型可兼顧暴露評估模型對準確性和保守性的要求,能可靠地對多種食物來源的化學物的高耑暴露量進行估計.
목적 건립식품중화학물적고단폭로선식모형병진행험증.방법 기우인체부가능동시유2～3충식물적소비량체도인군교고수평적가설,제출계산다충식물래원적식물화학물고단폭로량적선식모형.채용2011년전국화학오염물화유해인소감측수거고중연、력、홍함량수거(양본량분별위45 832、43 862화25 243빈)화2002년중국거민건강여영양상황조사중각류식물소비량수거,이반개솔분포모형위삼고,대모형적중요삼수진행선택,병이2010년감측적8충화학오염물재각류식품중적함량수거진행험증.결과 재제90、95、97.5백분위수고단폭로수평하,당분별채용7、12、20、30충식물분류시,함유량개고폭로식물적모형(2+x모형)수출결과여반개솔분포모형수출결과(삼고치)적상대편리도균＜0；함3개고폭로식물적모형(3+x모형)수출결과적상대편리도균>0,단균재±20％지간.진일보대모형진행험증표명,8충불동화학오염물통과3+x모형득도적결과균접근화(혹)고우반개솔분포모형적결과,상대편리도재-5％～ 25％지간.결론 3+x고단폭로모형가겸고폭로평고모형대준학성화보수성적요구,능가고지대다충식물래원적화학물적고단폭로량진행고계.
Objective To develop and verify a model diet for consumers with high exposure to food chemicals.Methods Based on the assumption that a person might consume average amounts of several different foods but only two or three at high levels,a model diet were put forward to calculate the high exposures to certain food chemical.Important parameters of this model were selected by comparing the outputs of this model with those of a reference model-semi-probabilistic model that is based on individual data.The concentration data of lead,cadmium and mercury (45 832,43 862 and 25 243 samples respectively) from the national risk surveillance for chemical contaminations and harmful factors (2011),and the consumption data from the national survey on nutrition and health status in Chinese population (2002) were used in this model optimization process.The final model was verified using concentration data of eight chemical contaminations from national surveillance database of 2010.Results When 90,95 and 97.5 percentile exposure being calculated under the conditions that 7,12,20 and 30 food categories was used respectively,the model containing two high consumption foods (2 + x model) got results lower than the reference values(the relative deviation ＜ 0),the model containing three high consumption foods (3 + x model) got results higher than the reference values (the relative deviation ＞ 0),but the relative deviation of the two models were both within 20％.The verification results showed that the dietary exposure results of 8 food contaminations got from 3 + xmodel were all higher than and (or) close to those got from semi-probabilistic model,and the relative deviations were between-5％ and 25％.Conclusion The 3 + x model diet can fulfill the demands of “conservative” and “accurate” on exposure assessment model,and can give reliable estimations of high exposure to food chemicals occurred in various food categories.
