中华预防医学杂志
中華預防醫學雜誌
중화예방의학잡지
CHINESE JOURNAL OF
2013年
7期
648-651
,共4页
膳食%模型,统计学%铅%长期摄入%暴露评估
膳食%模型,統計學%鉛%長期攝入%暴露評估
선식%모형,통계학%연%장기섭입%폭로평고
Diet%Models,statistical%Lead%Long-term intake%Exposure assessment
目的 比较观测个体均值(observed individual means,OIM)模型与贝塔二项-正态分布(betabinomial-normal,BBN)模型结果及其在铅膳食长期暴露评估中的运用.方法 利用2002年中国居民营养与健康状况调查中24 h膳食回顾法收集的消费量数据、2000-2006年污染物监测数据及2005-2006年海关出口农产品监测数据.OIM模型通过计算调查期间个体食物的平均消费量与污染物平均浓度匹配相乘,计算每日暴露量,而BBN模型通过调整个体内变异,保留个体间变异构建长期膳食暴露量.以铅污染数据为实例,对两模型结果进行比较.结果 OIM模型高端百分位数值均大于BBN模型,OIM模型全人目第25～99.9百分位数(P25～P99 9)的摄入量为1.167 ～7.313 μg·kg-1·d-1,BBN为1.193 ～5.729 μg·kg-1·d-1.各组OIM模型与BBN模型结果中位数较为接近,两模型全人群摄入量分别为1.543和1.579 μg· kg-1·d-1.结论 在膳食长期暴露评估中,OIM模型分析结果比BBN模型在高端百分位数部分更具保守性.
目的 比較觀測箇體均值(observed individual means,OIM)模型與貝塔二項-正態分佈(betabinomial-normal,BBN)模型結果及其在鉛膳食長期暴露評估中的運用.方法 利用2002年中國居民營養與健康狀況調查中24 h膳食迴顧法收集的消費量數據、2000-2006年汙染物鑑測數據及2005-2006年海關齣口農產品鑑測數據.OIM模型通過計算調查期間箇體食物的平均消費量與汙染物平均濃度匹配相乘,計算每日暴露量,而BBN模型通過調整箇體內變異,保留箇體間變異構建長期膳食暴露量.以鉛汙染數據為實例,對兩模型結果進行比較.結果 OIM模型高耑百分位數值均大于BBN模型,OIM模型全人目第25～99.9百分位數(P25～P99 9)的攝入量為1.167 ～7.313 μg·kg-1·d-1,BBN為1.193 ～5.729 μg·kg-1·d-1.各組OIM模型與BBN模型結果中位數較為接近,兩模型全人群攝入量分彆為1.543和1.579 μg· kg-1·d-1.結論 在膳食長期暴露評估中,OIM模型分析結果比BBN模型在高耑百分位數部分更具保守性.
목적 비교관측개체균치(observed individual means,OIM)모형여패탑이항-정태분포(betabinomial-normal,BBN)모형결과급기재연선식장기폭로평고중적운용.방법 이용2002년중국거민영양여건강상황조사중24 h선식회고법수집적소비량수거、2000-2006년오염물감측수거급2005-2006년해관출구농산품감측수거.OIM모형통과계산조사기간개체식물적평균소비량여오염물평균농도필배상승,계산매일폭로량,이BBN모형통과조정개체내변이,보류개체간변이구건장기선식폭로량.이연오염수거위실례,대량모형결과진행비교.결과 OIM모형고단백분위수치균대우BBN모형,OIM모형전인목제25～99.9백분위수(P25～P99 9)적섭입량위1.167 ～7.313 μg·kg-1·d-1,BBN위1.193 ～5.729 μg·kg-1·d-1.각조OIM모형여BBN모형결과중위수교위접근,량모형전인군섭입량분별위1.543화1.579 μg· kg-1·d-1.결론 재선식장기폭로평고중,OIM모형분석결과비BBN모형재고단백분위수부분경구보수성.
Objective To compare the results of observed individual means (OIM) model with betabinomial-normal (BBN) model and to apply the two models to assessment of long-term dietary lead exposure.Methods Food consumption data were obtained from the National Nutrition and Health Survey conducted in 2002 by 24-hour recall method.Contamination data were derived from the national food contamination monitoring program from 2000 to 2006 and from monitoring data of Customs exports for agricultural products between 2005 and 2006.By multiplying the average consumption of food with the average concentration of contaminant,the OIM model calculated dietary intake per day.By correcting the within-person variation and keeping the between-person variation,the BBN model built dietary intake in the long-term.Using the example of food lead data,the results of two models were compared.Results The highend percentile of OIM model was higher than the BBN model in various age groups.In the general population,the dietary intake of OIM model from 25th percentile to 99.9th percentile was between 1.167 and 7.313 μg· kg-1 · d-1,and the dietary intake of BBN model with the same percentile range was between 1.193 and 5.729 μg · kg-1 · d-1.The median of various groups was similar between the two models.The dietary intakes in the general population of two models were 1.543 and 1.579μg · kg-1 · d-1.Conclusion The high-end percentile of OIM model is more conservative than BBN model in the long-term dietary exposure assessment.
