CAJ | 학술논문

目的探讨儿童流行性感冒(简称流感)相关类非处方(OTC)药物销售信息及儿童流行性感冒样病例(ILI)就诊量信息综合应用在儿童流感疫情监测中的作用.方法利用综合监测系统(ISS)收集2012年8月1日至2013年2月28日湖北潜江80家医疗机构儿童ILI就诊量和11家药店14种儿童流感相关OTC药物销售量(人次),进行累积和模型运算分析拟合度和产生的预警信号,并进行互相关分析.结果 212 d共报告儿童ILI 983例,儿童OTC销售12 819人次.累积和运算拟合度在可接受范围,儿童ILI监测数据产生预警信号31个,3个预警高峰,儿童感冒相关OTC药物销售产生预警信号14个,2个预警高峰,经调查触发信号的病例增加有时间聚集但不具有空间聚集性.双变量互相关分析结果表明,流感相关OTC药物销售量与当天(lag=0)ILI例数相关性有统计学意义(r =0.497,P＜0.05),与延后4 d(lag=4)的ILI例数相关效果最佳(r=0.505,P＜0.05).结论初步证实综合症状监测系统可用于儿童流感疫情监测,存在早期探测到真实疫情暴发的可能性.
목적 탐토인동류행성감모(간칭류감)상관류비처방(OTC)약물소수신식급인동류행성감모양병례(ILI)취진량신식종합응용재인동류감역정감측중적작용.방법 이용종합감측계통(ISS)수집2012년8월1일지2013년2월28일호북잠강80가의료궤구인동ILI취진량화11가약점14충인동류감상관OTC약물소수량(인차),진행루적화모형운산분석의합도화산생적예경신호,병진행호상관분석.결과 212 d공보고인동ILI 983례,인동OTC소수12 819인차.루적화운산의합도재가접수범위,인동ILI감측수거산생예경신호31개,3개예경고봉,인동감모상관OTC약물소수산생예경신호14개,2개예경고봉,경조사촉발신호적병례증가유시간취집단불구유공간취집성.쌍변량호상관분석결과표명,류감상관OTC약물소수량여당천(lag=0)ILI례수상관성유통계학의의(r =0.497,P＜0.05),여연후4 d(lag=4)적ILI례수상관효과최가(r=0.505,P＜0.05).결론 초보증실종합증상감측계통가용우인동류감역정감측,존재조기탐측도진실역정폭발적가능성.
Objective To explore the integrated application of sales of child-specific over-the-counter(OTC) cold related medications in retail pharmacies and healthcare visits of children for influenza-like illness (ILI) in surveillance and early warning of influenza among children.Methods An integrated surveillance system(ISS) was implemented since 2012 in Qianjiang County,a rural area in Hubei Province of China.The daily information from August 1,2012 to February 28,2013 of health care visits of children for ILI reported by 80 health facilities and sales of 14 child-specific over-the-counter(OTC) cold related medications reported by 11 pharmacies werc extracted from ISS database.Cumulative sums (CUSUM) model was conducted to analyze the degree of fitting and the early warning signal generated; the correlationship was then analyzed further.Results In 212 days,983 visits of children for ILI and 12 819 sales by person of child-specific OTC were reported.Conducting CUSUM model,the fitting degree was in the acceptable range,31 warning signals were generated from ILI data series with 3 peak periods and 14 from OTC data series with 2 peak periods.A similar time trend of two data series was observed with a correlation (r =0.497,P ＜ 0.05),but without any spatial clustering.And the optimal correlation (r =0.505,P ＜ 0.05) appeared at a time offset of 4 days preceded by OTC sales.Conclusion The availability of integrated surveillance system for symptoms could be applied for surveillance of influenza among children; while it could explore the possibility of real epidemic in the very early stage.