中华预防医学杂志
中華預防醫學雜誌
중화예방의학잡지
CHINESE JOURNAL OF
2014年
8期
693-698
,共6页
梅毒%工作簿%疫情估计
梅毒%工作簿%疫情估計
매독%공작부%역정고계
Syphilis%Workbook%Epidemic estimation
目的 应用工作簿法(Workbook法)估计2011年全国梅毒疫情.方法 利用全国性病艾滋病监测系统,收集2011年31个省份15 ～ 49岁年龄组的女性性工作者(FSW)、男男性行为者(MSM)、性病就诊者、吸毒者、孕产妇、普通人群的人群规模和梅毒感染率数据,应用Meta分析合并不同监测点同一人群的多个梅毒感染率,应用Workbook法估计全国梅毒感染例数.结果 2011年全国15 ～49岁年龄组人群梅毒感染估计数(95％ CI值)为2 979 422(1 504 000 ～6 063 309)例.其中,FSW人群估计感染数为54 624(38 422 ～78 875)例,MSM人群估计数为265 453(162 586～506 520)例,性病就诊者估计数为53 555 (31 256 ～ 98 057)例,吸毒者估计数为94 244(66 475～139 349)例,孕产妇估计数为70 062(39 942 ～ 136 584)例,普通人群估计数为2441 484(1 165 319 ～5 103 924)例.普通人群估计数占梅毒感染总估计数的81.94％,MSM人群估计数占8.91％.估计2011年全国15～49岁年龄组人群梅毒发病人数为1 489 711例,15 ～49岁年龄组人群梅毒感染率为0.40％.本研究估计的梅毒发病例数为报告病例数的5.2倍.结论 应用Workbook法进行全国梅毒疫情估计,其方法学具有科学可行性,其估计结果对梅毒防治具有重要意义.
目的 應用工作簿法(Workbook法)估計2011年全國梅毒疫情.方法 利用全國性病艾滋病鑑測繫統,收集2011年31箇省份15 ～ 49歲年齡組的女性性工作者(FSW)、男男性行為者(MSM)、性病就診者、吸毒者、孕產婦、普通人群的人群規模和梅毒感染率數據,應用Meta分析閤併不同鑑測點同一人群的多箇梅毒感染率,應用Workbook法估計全國梅毒感染例數.結果 2011年全國15 ～49歲年齡組人群梅毒感染估計數(95％ CI值)為2 979 422(1 504 000 ～6 063 309)例.其中,FSW人群估計感染數為54 624(38 422 ～78 875)例,MSM人群估計數為265 453(162 586～506 520)例,性病就診者估計數為53 555 (31 256 ～ 98 057)例,吸毒者估計數為94 244(66 475～139 349)例,孕產婦估計數為70 062(39 942 ～ 136 584)例,普通人群估計數為2441 484(1 165 319 ～5 103 924)例.普通人群估計數佔梅毒感染總估計數的81.94％,MSM人群估計數佔8.91％.估計2011年全國15～49歲年齡組人群梅毒髮病人數為1 489 711例,15 ～49歲年齡組人群梅毒感染率為0.40％.本研究估計的梅毒髮病例數為報告病例數的5.2倍.結論 應用Workbook法進行全國梅毒疫情估計,其方法學具有科學可行性,其估計結果對梅毒防治具有重要意義.
목적 응용공작부법(Workbook법)고계2011년전국매독역정.방법 이용전국성병애자병감측계통,수집2011년31개성빈15 ～ 49세년령조적녀성성공작자(FSW)、남남성행위자(MSM)、성병취진자、흡독자、잉산부、보통인군적인군규모화매독감염솔수거,응용Meta분석합병불동감측점동일인군적다개매독감염솔,응용Workbook법고계전국매독감염례수.결과 2011년전국15 ～49세년령조인군매독감염고계수(95％ CI치)위2 979 422(1 504 000 ～6 063 309)례.기중,FSW인군고계감염수위54 624(38 422 ～78 875)례,MSM인군고계수위265 453(162 586～506 520)례,성병취진자고계수위53 555 (31 256 ～ 98 057)례,흡독자고계수위94 244(66 475～139 349)례,잉산부고계수위70 062(39 942 ～ 136 584)례,보통인군고계수위2441 484(1 165 319 ～5 103 924)례.보통인군고계수점매독감염총고계수적81.94％,MSM인군고계수점8.91％.고계2011년전국15～49세년령조인군매독발병인수위1 489 711례,15 ～49세년령조인군매독감염솔위0.40％.본연구고계적매독발병례수위보고병례수적5.2배.결론 응용Workbook법진행전국매독역정고계,기방법학구유과학가행성,기고계결과대매독방치구유중요의의.
Objective To apply workbook method for the estimation on syphilis epidemic in China.Methods The data on population size and syphilis infection were collected by national STD and HIV/AIDS surveillance system among six populations aged from 15 to 49 years old in 31 provinces in 2011.Six groups included female sex workers (FSW),men who have sex with men (MSM),STD clinic attendee,drug users,pregnant women and general population.Meta analysis was applied to pool the different prevalence of the same population in the different sentinels of each province,and then workbook method was applied to estimate the syphilis epidemic in China.Results The estimation of syphilis epidemic(95％ CI) was 2 979 422(1 504 000-6 063 309) among the populations aged 15 to 49 years old in 2011.The estimation among FSW was 54 624 (38 422-78 875),that of MSM was 265 453 (162 586-506 520),that of STD clinic attendee was 53 555(31 256-98 057),that of drug users was 94 244(66 475-139 349),that of pregnant women was 70 062(39 942-136 584) and that of general population was 2 441 484(1 165 319-5 103 924).The proportion of general population in the whole estimation of syphilis infection was 81.94％,and that of MSM was 8.91％.The estimation of syphilis incidence was 1 489 711 among 15 to 49 years old,and the estimation of syphilis prevalence was 0.40％ in the whole country.The estimation of incidence in this research was 5.2 times as the number of reported cases from China information system for diseases control and prevention.Conclusion Workbook method was a scientific and feasible toolkit for the estimation of syphilis epidemic in China,and the estimation outcomes were greatly significant for syphilis control.
