国际病毒学杂志
國際病毒學雜誌
국제병독학잡지
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF VIROLOGY
2013年
4期
169-174
,共6页
手足口病%流行病学%时空分析
手足口病%流行病學%時空分析
수족구병%류행병학%시공분석
Hand-foot-mouth disease%Epidemiology%Temporal and spatial analysis
目的 描述2011年北京市丰台区手足口病流行病学特征,寻找手足口病在丰台区可能存在的时空聚集区.方法 利用中国疾病预防控制信息系统上报的2011年手足口病监测数据及丰台区2011年人口统计数据,描述丰台区手足口病流行病学特征,并基于离散型泊松分布模型,利用SaTScan 8.0软件进行时空扫描分析,从时间和空间二维角度寻找手足口病在丰台区的高发时空聚集区.通过利用ArcGIS 10.0软件呈现手足口病时空聚集区域.结果 2011年,丰台区报告的手足口病病例数为4249例,发病率为201.18/105,发病高峰呈双峰分布.花乡地区手足口病的发病率较高.散居儿童与托幼儿童发病基本持平,男性的发病率高于女性.所有病例中,5岁以下儿童所占的比例为90.56％.时空扫描结果显示,最可能聚集时间分布在6月、7月、11月的某时段,一类聚集区位于丰台区中南部,二类聚集区位于丰台区中西部及东部,均为外来人口聚集区域,且部分是出于拆迁环境改造区域,卫生环境较差,通过与实际聚集区域比对,扫描聚集区均与实际发生聚集疫情的发生时间和具体区域相符合.结论 时空扫描分析方法可以非常好地应用于丰台区手足口病的高发重点区域分析,可为以后开展针对性的预防控制措施,提供科学参考依据.
目的 描述2011年北京市豐檯區手足口病流行病學特徵,尋找手足口病在豐檯區可能存在的時空聚集區.方法 利用中國疾病預防控製信息繫統上報的2011年手足口病鑑測數據及豐檯區2011年人口統計數據,描述豐檯區手足口病流行病學特徵,併基于離散型泊鬆分佈模型,利用SaTScan 8.0軟件進行時空掃描分析,從時間和空間二維角度尋找手足口病在豐檯區的高髮時空聚集區.通過利用ArcGIS 10.0軟件呈現手足口病時空聚集區域.結果 2011年,豐檯區報告的手足口病病例數為4249例,髮病率為201.18/105,髮病高峰呈雙峰分佈.花鄉地區手足口病的髮病率較高.散居兒童與託幼兒童髮病基本持平,男性的髮病率高于女性.所有病例中,5歲以下兒童所佔的比例為90.56％.時空掃描結果顯示,最可能聚集時間分佈在6月、7月、11月的某時段,一類聚集區位于豐檯區中南部,二類聚集區位于豐檯區中西部及東部,均為外來人口聚集區域,且部分是齣于拆遷環境改造區域,衛生環境較差,通過與實際聚集區域比對,掃描聚集區均與實際髮生聚集疫情的髮生時間和具體區域相符閤.結論 時空掃描分析方法可以非常好地應用于豐檯區手足口病的高髮重點區域分析,可為以後開展針對性的預防控製措施,提供科學參攷依據.
목적 묘술2011년북경시봉태구수족구병류행병학특정,심조수족구병재봉태구가능존재적시공취집구.방법 이용중국질병예방공제신식계통상보적2011년수족구병감측수거급봉태구2011년인구통계수거,묘술봉태구수족구병류행병학특정,병기우리산형박송분포모형,이용SaTScan 8.0연건진행시공소묘분석,종시간화공간이유각도심조수족구병재봉태구적고발시공취집구.통과이용ArcGIS 10.0연건정현수족구병시공취집구역.결과 2011년,봉태구보고적수족구병병례수위4249례,발병솔위201.18/105,발병고봉정쌍봉분포.화향지구수족구병적발병솔교고.산거인동여탁유인동발병기본지평,남성적발병솔고우녀성.소유병례중,5세이하인동소점적비례위90.56％.시공소묘결과현시,최가능취집시간분포재6월、7월、11월적모시단,일류취집구위우봉태구중남부,이류취집구위우봉태구중서부급동부,균위외래인구취집구역,차부분시출우탁천배경개조구역,위생배경교차,통과여실제취집구역비대,소묘취집구균여실제발생취집역정적발생시간화구체구역상부합.결론 시공소묘분석방법가이비상호지응용우봉태구수족구병적고발중점구역분석,가위이후개전침대성적예방공제조시,제공과학삼고의거.
Objective To describe the epidemiological characteristics of the hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) in 2011 in Fengtai district of Beijing,and to explore the space-time characteristics of HFMD to detect the potential space-time clusters.Methods Epidemiological data of HFMD cases reported in 2011 was obtained from the national disease prevention and control system.Demographic data were obtained from Fengtai district annual reports 2011.These data were analyzed to describe the epidemiological characteristics of HFMD in Fengtai district,and to detect the potential spatial-temperal clusters using SaTScan 8.0 software.These clusters were then demonstrated using the software ArcGIS 10.0.Results 4244 cases of HFMD were reported in Fengtai District in 2011,with the incidence rate of 201.18/105.The daily incidence rate of HFMD showed a bimodal distribution.The prevalence of HFMD in Hua-xiang and the Marco Polo Bridge was higher than other sub-districts.The incidence of the scattered children is similar to that of the kindergarten's children.Male is more likely to be infected with HFMD.90.56％ of the HFMD cases were under the age of five years.The space-time scan results shows:gathered time distribuied in a period of June,July and November,Grade-I gathering areas located in Central and southern region of Fengtai District,Grade-Ⅱ gathering areas located in western and eastern region.These gathering areas were outside population living centers and there were poor sanitary conditions.Compared with the actual clustering areas,the scan resuits were consistent with the actual gathering areas.Conclusions The spatial-temperal scan analysis method showed a good performance in the detection of the spatial-temperal clusters.
