国际流行病学传染病学杂志
國際流行病學傳染病學雜誌
국제류행병학전염병학잡지
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTIOUS DISEASE
2013年
6期
397-401
,共5页
狂犬病%GM(1,1)%温特斯法%季节性
狂犬病%GM(1,1)%溫特斯法%季節性
광견병%GM(1,1)%온특사법%계절성
Rabies%GM(1,1)%Winters model%Seasonal
目的 比较温特斯法模型和季节指数GM(1,1)模型对舟山市狂犬病暴露人群数量的预测效果.方法 选取2006-2011年舟山市各月狂犬病暴露人群资料分别建立温特斯法模型和季节指数GM(1,1)模型,用2012年1-12月实际暴露人数验证比较两种模型拟合预测效果.选取相对误差较小的模型预测2013年舟山市狂犬病暴露人数.结果 应用季节指数GM(1,1)模型和温特斯法模型对2006-2011年狂犬病暴露人群资料进行拟合,模型平均绝对误差率分别为19.104 8％和7.701 3％;温特斯法模型的平均绝对误差、均方根误差都低于季节指数GM(1,1)模型.2012年季节指数GM(1,1)模型和温特斯法模型预测值距实测值的平均绝对误差率分别22.843 5％和11.312 4％.温斯特法模型预测2013年舟山市狂犬病暴露约13 526人.结论 温特斯法模型对舟山市狂犬病暴露人群的预测效果要优于季节指数GM(1,1)模型.在预测具有季节性和趋势的资料时,应用两种模型进行比较后选择最优模型,更有利于疾病的预测和防治效果的评估.
目的 比較溫特斯法模型和季節指數GM(1,1)模型對舟山市狂犬病暴露人群數量的預測效果.方法 選取2006-2011年舟山市各月狂犬病暴露人群資料分彆建立溫特斯法模型和季節指數GM(1,1)模型,用2012年1-12月實際暴露人數驗證比較兩種模型擬閤預測效果.選取相對誤差較小的模型預測2013年舟山市狂犬病暴露人數.結果 應用季節指數GM(1,1)模型和溫特斯法模型對2006-2011年狂犬病暴露人群資料進行擬閤,模型平均絕對誤差率分彆為19.104 8％和7.701 3％;溫特斯法模型的平均絕對誤差、均方根誤差都低于季節指數GM(1,1)模型.2012年季節指數GM(1,1)模型和溫特斯法模型預測值距實測值的平均絕對誤差率分彆22.843 5％和11.312 4％.溫斯特法模型預測2013年舟山市狂犬病暴露約13 526人.結論 溫特斯法模型對舟山市狂犬病暴露人群的預測效果要優于季節指數GM(1,1)模型.在預測具有季節性和趨勢的資料時,應用兩種模型進行比較後選擇最優模型,更有利于疾病的預測和防治效果的評估.
목적 비교온특사법모형화계절지수GM(1,1)모형대주산시광견병폭로인군수량적예측효과.방법 선취2006-2011년주산시각월광견병폭로인군자료분별건립온특사법모형화계절지수GM(1,1)모형,용2012년1-12월실제폭로인수험증비교량충모형의합예측효과.선취상대오차교소적모형예측2013년주산시광견병폭로인수.결과 응용계절지수GM(1,1)모형화온특사법모형대2006-2011년광견병폭로인군자료진행의합,모형평균절대오차솔분별위19.104 8％화7.701 3％;온특사법모형적평균절대오차、균방근오차도저우계절지수GM(1,1)모형.2012년계절지수GM(1,1)모형화온특사법모형예측치거실측치적평균절대오차솔분별22.843 5％화11.312 4％.온사특법모형예측2013년주산시광견병폭로약13 526인.결론 온특사법모형대주산시광견병폭로인군적예측효과요우우계절지수GM(1,1)모형.재예측구유계절성화추세적자료시,응용량충모형진행비교후선택최우모형,경유리우질병적예측화방치효과적평고.
Objective To compare the prediction effect of winters model and the seasonal-index GM (1,1) model for the number of population exposed to rabies in Zhoushan city.Methods The seasonal-index GM(1,1)model and winters model were established on the monthly populations exposed to rabies in Zhoushan from 2006 to 2011.The prediction effect of the two models were compared and verified by the real data in 2012.The model with the less relative error was adopted to predict the population in Zhoushan in 2013.Results The seasonal-index GM (1,1) model and winters model were used to analyze the date of population exposed to rabies from 2006 to 2011.The mean absolute percent error were 19.104 8％and 7.701 3％ respectively.The average absolute error and root mean square error of the winters model were both lower than those of seasonal-index GM (1,1) model.The mean absolute percent error of winters model and seasonal-index GM (1,1) model were 11.312 4％and 22.843 5％ respectively.The number of the people who exposed to rabies,which forecasted would be 13 526 in Zhoushan in 2013 by the winters model.Conclusions The winters model is superior to seasonal-index GM (1,1) model in predicting populations exposed to rabies in Zhoushan.The two models should be compared to choose a better model to predict the seasonal or tendency data,and is beneficial to disease prediction and assessment of the control effect.
