中华地方病学杂志
中華地方病學雜誌
중화지방병학잡지
Chinese Journal of Endemiology
2014年
5期
485-487
,共3页
丛显斌%鞠成%徐成%周晓磊%姚晓恒%段天一%张贵军%陈磊%刘振才
叢顯斌%鞠成%徐成%週曉磊%姚曉恆%段天一%張貴軍%陳磊%劉振纔
총현빈%국성%서성%주효뢰%요효항%단천일%장귀군%진뢰%류진재
鼠疫%风险评估%德尔菲法
鼠疫%風險評估%德爾菲法
서역%풍험평고%덕이비법
Plague%Risk assessment%Delphi approach
目的 构建鼠疫风险评估指标体系,探索我国鼠疫风险评估和风险管理的基本方法.方法 采用文献检索和小范围专家会议法初步拟定鼠疫风险评估指标体系;应用德尔菲法,将风险评估指标编制成表格问卷,对专家进行咨询,并对每个指标的必要性、敏感性、可操作性及其相对权值进行评分;采用Excel 2007和SPSS 19.0软件计算指标权重.结果 根据鼠疫爆发流行的主要影响因素,建立了7个一级指标和17个二级指标的鼠疫风险评估指标体系,其中一级指标包括鼠疫的疫源地(5个二级指标)、病原学(2个二级指标)、传染源(4个二级指标)、传播途径(2个二级指标)、人群(1个二级指标)、地理环境(2个二级指标)和疫情动态(1个二级指标).一级指标的专家评分分别为:7.712±1.337、7.763±1.586、7.927±1.366、7.144±2.138、6.652±2.128、5.939±1.991、5.580±2.018;权重分别为:0.158 3、0.159 3、0.162 7、0.146 6、0.136 5、0.121 9、0.114 5.结论 初步建立了鼠疫风险评估指标体系,探索出我国鼠疫风险评估的基本方法.
目的 構建鼠疫風險評估指標體繫,探索我國鼠疫風險評估和風險管理的基本方法.方法 採用文獻檢索和小範圍專傢會議法初步擬定鼠疫風險評估指標體繫;應用德爾菲法,將風險評估指標編製成錶格問捲,對專傢進行咨詢,併對每箇指標的必要性、敏感性、可操作性及其相對權值進行評分;採用Excel 2007和SPSS 19.0軟件計算指標權重.結果 根據鼠疫爆髮流行的主要影響因素,建立瞭7箇一級指標和17箇二級指標的鼠疫風險評估指標體繫,其中一級指標包括鼠疫的疫源地(5箇二級指標)、病原學(2箇二級指標)、傳染源(4箇二級指標)、傳播途徑(2箇二級指標)、人群(1箇二級指標)、地理環境(2箇二級指標)和疫情動態(1箇二級指標).一級指標的專傢評分分彆為:7.712±1.337、7.763±1.586、7.927±1.366、7.144±2.138、6.652±2.128、5.939±1.991、5.580±2.018;權重分彆為:0.158 3、0.159 3、0.162 7、0.146 6、0.136 5、0.121 9、0.114 5.結論 初步建立瞭鼠疫風險評估指標體繫,探索齣我國鼠疫風險評估的基本方法.
목적 구건서역풍험평고지표체계,탐색아국서역풍험평고화풍험관리적기본방법.방법 채용문헌검색화소범위전가회의법초보의정서역풍험평고지표체계;응용덕이비법,장풍험평고지표편제성표격문권,대전가진행자순,병대매개지표적필요성、민감성、가조작성급기상대권치진행평분;채용Excel 2007화SPSS 19.0연건계산지표권중.결과 근거서역폭발류행적주요영향인소,건립료7개일급지표화17개이급지표적서역풍험평고지표체계,기중일급지표포괄서역적역원지(5개이급지표)、병원학(2개이급지표)、전염원(4개이급지표)、전파도경(2개이급지표)、인군(1개이급지표)、지리배경(2개이급지표)화역정동태(1개이급지표).일급지표적전가평분분별위:7.712±1.337、7.763±1.586、7.927±1.366、7.144±2.138、6.652±2.128、5.939±1.991、5.580±2.018;권중분별위:0.158 3、0.159 3、0.162 7、0.146 6、0.136 5、0.121 9、0.114 5.결론 초보건립료서역풍험평고지표체계,탐색출아국서역풍험평고적기본방법.
Objective To establish an plague risk assessment index system,and to provide a scientific basis for risk assessments and risk management of plague.Methods Preliminary framework and indicators were formulated based on literature review and expert consensus.By Delphi approach,the risk assessment indexes were made into table questionnaire,and expert consultation was conducted.Necessity,sensitivity,operability and relative weight of risk assessment index were scored.Weights were determined by Excel 2007 and SPSS 19.0.Results A preliminary plague risk assessment index system including 7 first class indicators and 17 secondary class indicators was established based on the main factors of plague outbreak.The first class indicators included natural plague foci (5 secondary indicators),etiology of plague (2 secondary indicators),the source of infection(4secondary indicators),the route of infection (2 secondary indicators),susceptible populations (1 secondary indicator),geographical environment (2 secondary indicators),and epidemic dynamic (1 secondary indicator).Expert scores of first class indicators were 7.712 ± 1.337,7.763 ± 1.586,7.927 ± 1.366,7.144 ± 2.138,6.652 ±2.128,5.939 ± 1.991 and 5.580 ± 2.018,respectively; weights were 0.158 3,0.159 3,0.162 7,0.146 6,0.136 5,0.121 9 and 0.114 5,respectively.Conclusion The risk assessment index system and risk management method of plague in China has been basically established.
