CAJ | 학술논문

目的探讨人间鼠疫流行与气象因素的关系,为鼠疫风险评估提供参考.方法人间鼠疫发病资料来自我国部分省(区)上报数据,气象数据来自气象科学数据共享中心的中国地面国际交换站气候资料年值数据集.整理黄胸鼠、喜马拉雅旱獭疫源地气象(气温和湿度)和人间鼠疫发病资料,应用反距离加权空间插值(IDW)和分区统计分析获得各区县气候数据的年均值,利用Stata 12.0软件进行面板数据回归诊断分析,统计当年或领先1～4年温度、湿度对鼠疫发病的影响.结果对云南、广西、贵州的黄胸鼠疫源地33个县疫情数据和气象因素面板数据回归诊断分析显示,人间疫情流行与当年的极端最高气温(r=-0.022 9,P＜0.05)呈负相关,与当年的平均相对湿度(r=0.083 0,P＜ 0.05)呈正相关,与领先1年的极端最低气温(r=-0.019 6,P＜0.01)呈负相关,与领先1年的极端最高气温(r=-0.019 0,P＜ 0.05)呈负相关,与领先2年的最小相对湿度(r=-0.107 2,P＜0.01)呈负相关,与领先3年的平均最高气温(r=-0.118 6,P＜0.01)呈负相关;与领先4年的气象因素无关(P均＞ 0.05).对甘肃、青海、四川喜马拉雅旱獭疫源地发生人间鼠疫疫情的21个县的气象资料与发病起数的面板数据回归分析显示,人间鼠疫的发病与气象因素的关系不大(P均＞ 0.05).结论黄胸鼠疫源地人间鼠疫流行与气象因素关系密切,气温过高或过低均可抑制人间鼠疫流行,湿度是当年鼠疫流行的促进因素,气象因素可作为黄胸鼠疫源地鼠疫风险评估的参考.
목적 탐토인간서역류행여기상인소적관계,위서역풍험평고제공삼고.방법 인간서역발병자료래자아국부분성(구)상보수거,기상수거래자기상과학수거공향중심적중국지면국제교환참기후자료년치수거집.정리황흉서、희마랍아한달역원지기상(기온화습도)화인간서역발병자료,응용반거리가권공간삽치(IDW)화분구통계분석획득각구현기후수거적년균치,이용Stata 12.0연건진행면판수거회귀진단분석,통계당년혹령선1～4년온도、습도대서역발병적영향.결과 대운남、엄서、귀주적황흉서역원지33개현역정수거화기상인소면판수거회귀진단분석현시,인간역정류행여당년적겁단최고기온(r=-0.022 9,P＜0.05)정부상관,여당년적평균상대습도(r=0.083 0,P＜ 0.05)정정상관,여령선1년적겁단최저기온(r=-0.019 6,P＜0.01)정부상관,여령선1년적겁단최고기온(r=-0.019 0,P＜ 0.05)정부상관,여령선2년적최소상대습도(r=-0.107 2,P＜0.01)정부상관,여령선3년적평균최고기온(r=-0.118 6,P＜0.01)정부상관;여령선4년적기상인소무관(P균＞ 0.05).대감숙、청해、사천희마랍아한달역원지발생인간서역역정적21개현적기상자료여발병기수적면판수거회귀분석현시,인간서역적발병여기상인소적관계불대(P균＞ 0.05).결론 황흉서역원지인간서역류행여기상인소관계밀절,기온과고혹과저균가억제인간서역류행,습도시당년서역류행적촉진인소,기상인소가작위황흉서역원지서역풍험평고적삼고.
Objective To explore the relationship between human plague epidemic and meteorological factors,and to provide a reference for risk assessment of the plague.Methods Human plague incidence data were from the part provinces (districts) reported data in China,and meteorological data were from the annual value database of Chinese Ground International Exchange Station of China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System.The meteorological data (temperature and humidity) and the human plague incidence data of Rattus flavipectus plague foci and plague natural focus of Marmota himalayana plateau foci were sorted out,and inverse distance weighted interpolation (IDW) and zonal statistics were applied to obtain the district average value of climate data;panel data regression was analyzed by Stata 12.0 software; the effect of temperature and humidity on plague incidence this year or 1-4 years ahead was statistically analyzed.Results Regression analysis of epidemic data and meteorological factors panel data of Rattus flavipectus plague foei in 33 counties of Yunnan,Guangxi,Guizhou showed that human epidemic and extreme maximum temperature were negatively related(r =-0.022 9,P ＜ 0.05),average relative humidity of this year were positively correlated (r =0.083 0,P ＜ 0.05),extreme minimum temperature of 1 year before(r =-0.019 6,P ＜ 0.01) were negatively related,extreme maximum temperature of 1 year before(r =-0.019 0,P ＜ 0.05) were negatively correlated,minimum relative humidity of 2 years before (r =-0.107 2,P ＜ 0.01) were negatively correlated,average maximum temperature of 3 years before (r =-0.118 6,P ＜ 0.01) were negative correlated,meteorological factors of 4 years ahead(all P ＞ 0.05) were not correlated.Regression analysis of the epidemic data and meteorological factors panel data of Marmota himalaryana plague foci in 21 counties of Gansu,Qinghai,Sichuan showed that human plague epidemic and meteorological data were not correlated(all P＞ 0.05).Conclusions Human plague epidemic of Rattusflavipectus plague foci and meteorological factors are closely related; human plague epidemic can be inhibited when the temperature is too high or too low;humidity is a promoting factor,and meteorological factors need to be included in the index system of Rattus flavipectus plague foci risk assessment.